AXNT20 KNHC 242153
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic tropical wave is E of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W
from 17N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 13N between the African coast
Another Atlantic tropical wave is approaching Windward Islands
near 60W from 16N southward into Guayana and moving W at 10 to 15
kt. Aided by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from the
coast of Guayana and NE Venezuela to 13N between 53W and 61W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from the Windward Passage
into Colombia, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection previously
associated with this wave has moved well inland into Colombia.
An other tropical wave, that main extends now into the eastern
Pacific stretches northward into the Gulf of Honduras. Its axis is
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. All associated convection is now in the
A monsoon trough exits through the African coast at Guinea-Bissau
near 11N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N24W to
04N52W, and into French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is
evident near the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 23W and 45W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from 23N87W to 30N84W. A broad area of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection associated with
this trough extends N of 23N and E of 90W. Another weak surface
trough has developed about 60 nm offshore the NE Mexican coast,
from Tampico N to the mouth of the Rio Grande. Away from
convection, mainly gentle SE wind prevails with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail Mon and Tue.
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the western Gulf
by Tue night ahead of a strong cold front expected to push off the
Texas coast on Wed. The front will move across the Gulf through
Fri night. Expect widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas
across the northern and central Gulf from Wed through Fri night.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection
across the Caribbean Basin. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades
with seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the central and eastern basin.
Mainly moderate trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail across the
remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh
to locally strong trades E of the Windward Islands and across the
eastern Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are also expected to
pulse fresh to strong in the Venezuela basin through Mon night.
Gentle to moderate tradewinds are expect to prevail across the
basin from Tue through Thu.
A surface trough extends from SW of Bermuda through the NW Bahamas
and into the the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted in association with this trough N of
25N between 55W and 75W. Another trough extends from 31N41W to
21N46W. Convection previously associated with this trough has
diminished this afternoon. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the
Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate N of 24N
between the African coast and 54W. N of 24N between 54W and 70W,
light to gentle winds prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. W of 70W,
Moderate SE winds are increasing, and seas are 3 to 5 ft. S of
24N, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft
The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash clouds and
some SO2 have been emitted periodically from the volcano. Marine
and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
For the forecast W of 65W, a low is expected to develop off the
Georgia coast by Mon morning with a cold front sliding off the
northeast Florida coast. This will bring fresh to strong southerly
winds ahead of the front Mon through Wed, N of 27N and E of 77W.
A second front will move off the U.S. east coast on Tue morning
which will bring another round of fresh to strong winds north of
the Bahamas. Conditions will improve by Wed and Thu before a third
cold front is expected to sweep across the region Thu night
through Fri night.