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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 160615 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N11W. The ITCZ continues from 05N11W to 04N29W.
A surface trough is along 31W-32W from 08N to the Equator. The 
ITCZ resumes from 02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection
in the vicinity of the trough and the ITCZ near Brazil south of
11N and west of 29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is along and within the ITCZ south of 20N between 14W-24W. 


The pair of cold fronts that was on the eastern Gulf waters have 
started to exit the area and enter the western Caribbean. First 
front extends from the western Atlantic into the Straits of 
Florida. The second front, now a dissipating cold front extends 
from 30N78W into central Florida near 27N80W to the eastern Gulf 
waters near 25N82W. Scattered showers are possible near the 
dissipating front. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 
25N88W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the 
basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered over northern 

A high pres ridge will build over the northern Gulf Sun and Mon, 
then slide E Tue. Low pres will move NE from the coast of Texas 
Wed to the SE United States Thu and drag the next cold front 
across the Gulf. Winds and seas in the Gulf will continue to 
diminish tonight through Mon. Easterly flow across the N Gulf on 
Tue will veer to SE Wed as low pres develops over the SW gulf.


A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into a stationary 
front from western Cuba near 22N81W to western coast of Honduras 
near 15N87W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 20N81W to 13N84W. 
Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean and near 
the coast of Honduras from mainly west of 80W. 

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an
upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry
air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The N portion of the front will continue slowly moving E to central
Cuba Sun afternoon and to eastern Cuba Mon afternoon, then the 
front will dissipate as the N portion reaches eastern Cuba Tue. 
Strong N winds are expected W of the front across the Gulf of 
Honduras through Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail 
across the Caribbean E of 80W through early Mon, with the highest 
winds ramping up along the NW coast of Colombia at night. Large N 
swell will continue funneling from the Atlc through the NE 
Caribbean passages tonight and Sun. 


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W into  
the eastern Bahamas near 26N78W and then to western Cuba near 
23N81W. A second front is beginning to dissipate north of 30N and
west of 78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the 
first cold front mainly north of 31N to 27N between 71W-75W.
Behind the front, scatterometer pass shows small area of strong 
to near gale force winds between 32W to 37W. Scattered showers 
are noted along the vicinity of the front south of 27N. To the 
east, another front is analyzed as a cold front from 31N27W to 
22N50W, then as a stationary front continues from that point to to
23N59W to 27N68W. Scattered showers are observed along the cold 
front. A surface trough is observed near the coast of Africa from 
30N10W to 23N12W.

The cold front extending from 31N75W to the eastern Bahamas will 
push E and extend from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to central 
Cuba Sun afternoon, from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and E 
central Cuba Mon afternoon, then finally stall and weaken from 
near 25N66W to eastern Cuba Tue. 

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