182 
AXNT20 KNHC 172326
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic waters through the 
coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 
01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to the coast of NE Brazil 
near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 
05N between 45W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1017 mb is analyzed over the far SE Gulf near 
23.5N84W, with a warm front, then stationary front extending 
northeastward across the Florida Keys and South Florida. A cold 
front stretches from the low center southwestward across the NW
Caribbean. Patches of light rain and scattered showers are 
associated with these features affecting the SE Gulf, South 
Florida and the Florida Keys. The remainder of the basin is 
under the influence of a ridge, with a 1017 mb high pressure 
center located near the Florida/Georgia border. Moderate to 
locally fresh SE to S winds are noted per scatterometer data over
the western Gulf, particularly N of 24N and W of 94W. Similar 
wind speeds are occurring over the north-central Gulf, and in the
vicinity of the low and fronts. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, 
except 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. 

For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NE winds, 
surrounding the low in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, will 
diminish this evening. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds 
will develop this evening and continue through Sat across the 
northern and western Gulf as a warm front lifts northward, ahead 
of developing low pressure in the south-central United States. A 
cold front associated with the aforementioned low is expected to 
enter the northwestern basin Sat night, and fresh N winds will 
follow the front. Winds will increase to strong speeds by early 
Sun as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and 
building high pressure over the central U.S. Near-gale force 
winds will be possible on Sun over the southwestern Gulf offshore
of Tampico and Veracruz. Rough seas are expected to accompany 
the winds. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is slated to 
move into the northwestern Gulf early next week, leading to 
strong to near gale force winds across much of the basin. Winds 
may reach gale force in portions of the northern and western 
Gulf. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

satellite imagery indicate that the shear line that extends from
the Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean Sea near 
12N80W continues to produce some shower activity with isolated 
thunderstorms. Patches of low level clouds, with embedded showers
and isolated thunderstorms are also moving across the Lesser 
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, more concentrated near the 
ABC Islands. As previously mentioned, a cold front is over the NW
Caribbean reaching the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE 
winds are N of the shear line, and near the coast of Colombia. 
Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas remain in place.

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
will prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern 
Caribbean this weekend, with locally strong winds developing each
night offshore of Colombia, through the Atlantic Passages and 
downwind of Hispaniola. Locally rough seas are expected near 
strong winds. A long-period E swell will promote rough seas 
through the Atlantic Passages tonight through the middle of next 
week. Fresh to locally strong SE to E winds will develop Sat 
night in the northwestern Caribbean ahead of a cold front moving 
southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong E winds and building seas will occur over much of the 
basin early next week ahead of the aforementioned cold front 
approaching the northwestern Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak ridge dominates the western Atlantic where a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow is observed. To the east, a couple of
weakening cold front are noted. The main front extends from
31N34W to the Leeward Islands where it becomes a shear line. 
Fresh to strong west winds are north of 28N between 55W and 70W.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Seas in excess of 8 ft
cover the waters E of 60W and to the northwest of a line from 
28N35W to 23N46W to 19N60W, and also N of 28N between 60W and 
74W. High pressure present over the eastern and central Atlantic 
is allowing for generally moderate to fresh trades to exist in 
the tropical region south of about 20N and east of the Lesser 
Antilles. In fact, satellite derived wind data show an area of
fresh to locally trades between the W coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands. Seas with these trades are 5 to 8 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds along with mostly moderate seas are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, rough to very rough seas, associated 
with a pair of cold fronts in the central Atlantic, will prevail 
north of 20N and east of 65W tonight, and rough seas will be 
reinforced north of 28N and east of 75W by swell from complex 
storm systems north of the area. Fresh to strong W to NW winds, 
associated with a trough extending from the aforementioned lows, 
will occur north of 28N and east of 72W tonight, with winds 
expanding farther east as the system treks eastward. Elsewhere, 
south of 22N, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through 
early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds east of the 
Windward Islands at times. Fresh to locally strong S winds and 
rough seas are expected to develop off the coast of Florida and 
through the northern Bahamas late tonight as low pressure forms 
off the coast of the southeastern U.S., before the low moves 
northeastward this weekend. Another cold front, slated to move 
into the northwestern waters on Sun will promote fresh to strong 
SW to NW winds and rough seas north of 27N. Looking ahead, a very
strong cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. 
coast early next week, followed by strong to near-gale force N 
winds and building seas north of Cuba and west of 70W. 
 
$$
GR