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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 311025

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.


...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with 
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the 
eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of 
thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the 
the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador northward to 
Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually 
encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within 
the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to 
advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and 
southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a 
dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of 
active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend
and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El 
Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of 
southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring 
the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for
locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your 
local weather service for more details.


The axis of a tropical wave is moving onshore into eastern
Nicaragua and Honduras, with the northern portion of the tropical
wave reaching the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will merge 
into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre later 
this morning.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W
05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to the coast of Brazil 
near 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 05N-08N between 21W- 25W. Scattered moderate 
convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-03S east of 40W.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the 
next few days.

A cold front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama
City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A surface
trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off
Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the
Yucatan peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, on the periphery of the
Central American Gyre developing over the region to the south. The
surface trough and thunderstorm activity are enhanced by a well 
developed upper low is centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley.
A recent scatterometer pass indicated NE to E winds around 20 to 
25 kt over much of the southwest Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle 
to light winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft 

For the forecast, the weak cold front moving into the northeast Gulf
will stall over the southeastern Gulf by early Tue and dissipate
through mid week. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest
Gulf early in the week as the Central American Gyre persists over
southeast Mexico and northern Central America.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the 
next few days. 

A tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean, and 
will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American 
Gyre later today. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the 
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central 
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and 
off Yucatan through mid week as the Central American Gyre deepens.
Farther east, the Bermuda High rebuilds to north of the basin 
maintaining fresh tradewinds off Colombia through mid week.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W. 

A surface trough reaches from near 27N70W through the southern
Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered
thunderstorms are active near the northern end of the surface
trough. A mid to upper level trough is moving off the Georgia and
Carolina coasts into the western Atlantic, supporting scattered
thunderstorms from 30N to 31N between 77W and 79W. Moderate SW 
winds are active in this area as well, ahead of a cold front 
approaching from the west. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near 
32N59W. Thunderstorm activity near this feature has completely 
dissipated over the past six hours. Generally light winds and 3 to
5 ft seas persist over open waters west of 55W. The cold front 
will move inot the area through late today, will reach from 
Bermuda to South Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue 
afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will 
increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. High pressure 
building north of the front will support fresh trade winds by mid 
week south of 22N off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the 
approaches to the Windward Passage.

Farther east, high pressure covers the Atlantic waters north of
20N. This is supporting moderate to fresh trades farther south
over the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas.