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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282311
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A dying occlusion and cold front extends from a 1007 mb low 
pressure near 27N59W to E of the Lesser Antilles near 15N57W. 
A surface trough extends from the end of the dying cold front to
near the coast of Venezuela. A broad ridge NE of the front is 
inducing a tight pressure gradient along and northeast of the 
front. Scatterometer data showed and area of 30 to 40 kt E to SE 
winds covering roughly the waters N of 27N between 50W and 56W. 
Seas within this zone are 10 to 16 ft per altimeter data. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted east of the 
front from 20N to 31N between 44W and 52W. The surface low 
pressure will move SE and continue to weaken. The front will also
continue to drift eastward and weaken. This will cause winds to 
drop below gale force early this evening. 

...ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Very large northerly swell, that has originating in the NE Atlantic
offshore of Europe, is beginning to enter the far NE Atlantic waters
S of 31N and E of 40W. Seas will quickly build to 12 ft and greater
and peak around 18 feet by this evening. This swell event will 
continue to propagate across the waters E of 50W on Fri, reaching
as far south of 20N by Fri afternoon. At that time, seas will 
subside to 10 to 14 ft. By Fri night, seas 12 ft or greater will
move E of the forecast area. 

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to 
00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. A cluster of moderate
to strong convection is where the ITCZ meets the coast of Brazil.
Elsewhere, convection is limited. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb located over Louisiana dominates most of
the Gulf waters while the slow moving cold front now crosses 
South Florida, the Straits of Florida and western Cuba. Fresh to
strong N winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail behind the front 
across the central and eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S to SW 
winds are ahead of the front over the Straits of Florida. In the 
western Gulf, high pressure continues to build behind the front. 
Light to gentle winds are occurring along the Texas and Mexico 
coast W of 94W under the influence of the high. Seas range 3 to 
5 ft in this area. 

For the forecast, the cold front over the far SE Gulf will move 
SE of the area by early this evening. Fresh to strong NE winds 
and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf will subside late 
tonight into Fri as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf
in the wake of the front. The area of high pressure will shift E
and support fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf Sat 
through Mon. Another cold front may enter the western Gulf Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms are ahead of the
front. Fresh lo locally strong NW to N winds are noted behind 
the front, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel, and 4
to 6 ft elsewhere W of the front. Meanwhile, light to gentle 
winds prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. North swell 
that has been impacted the Caribbean Passages continue to produce
seas up to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean E of 68W. Otherwise, 
seas are 3 ft or less. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to
NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will continue to follow the front across the NW Caribbean tonight.
Winds and seas will diminish Fri across NW portions as the front
reaches the NE coast of Cuba to NE Honduras, then weakens from 
Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sat. High pressure
building north of the region in the wake of the front will support
fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across 
the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat evening. Winds and 
seas will then diminish there Sat night. Moderate N swell moving 
through the NE Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic 
waters will gradually subside through early Fri. Strong trade 
winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the
southern coast of Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure 
settles NE of the Bahamas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in the Central Atlantic and the Significant Swell
event. 

In the western Atlantic off the Florida coast, a cold front
extends from a 1004 mb low pressure located N of the area near 
33N76W to South Florida. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are noted in the wake of the front. Between this system 
and the frontal boundary producing gale force winds in the 
central Atlantic, a weak 1014 mb high pressure is analyzed near 
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Winds are light to gentle under 
the influence of this high and to the 1007 mb low pressure 
mentioned in the Special Features section. Seas range 5 to 8 ft
outside of the Bahamas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 1003 mb low
pressure located just E of the Madeira Islands to 28N30W to 
31N40W. The latest ASCAT data depicted fresh to strong W to NW 
winds behind the front, with moderate to fresh W winds ahead of 
it. This system is helping usher in the significant swell event 
mentioned in the Special Features section. South of the front, 
high pressure extends across the remainder of the eastern and
central Atlantic. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail with 6
to 9 ft seas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, broad low pressure SE of Bermuda 
centered near 27N59W will meander, then weaken to a trough and 
move slowly east of 55W Fri night. Large northerly swell 
dominates the waters W of 60W and will gradually subside through 
early Fri. A dying occlusion and cold front extends from a 1007 mb 
low pressure near 27N59W to E of the Lesser Antilles near 15N57W.
An area of strong to gale-force E to SE winds, rough to very 
rough seas, and scattered strong thunderstorms remains active to 
the east of the front, N of 20N. SE gales occurring N of 26N will
move N of the area this evening, while the front gradually 
shifts to the east of 55W by Fri morning. Farther west, a cold 
front extends from 31N78W to Central Florida. This front will 
reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by midday Fri, from 31N55W to 
the Mona Passage by Sat morning, then move east of the area early
Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will follow this front, then 
diminish from west to east as high pressure build eastward along 
roughly 29N, and settles NE of the Bahamas Sun and Mon. The high 
center will start to shift eastward Tue.

$$
GR