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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



632 
AXNT20 KNHC 290433
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian is centered over central Florida near 27.5N 81.4W 
at 29/0300 UTC or 70 nm SW of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ian is 
moving NNE at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian is losing
intensity due to land interaction, wind shear and dry air, and is
now a category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 40 nm
from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 nm 
from the center. The peak seas are near 24 ft. While the strongest
convection remains over land, a band of thunderstorms has 
developed east of Ian over the western Atlantic, from 31N78W to 
21N77W. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to 
move across central Florida this morning and emerge over the 
western Atlantic by mid-day Thursday. Ian is then forecast to 
turn northward and make a second landfall in South Carolina or 
Georgia as a strong tropical storm on Friday. Please read the 
latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eleven center located near 17.2N 35.6W at 
29/0300 UTC, or 670 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 
9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft.
Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the depression
from 17N to 20N, between 33W and 36W. A general north to north-
west motion is expected over the next couple days before the
system dissipates by Friday or Saturday. Please read the latest 
NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends along 27W from 09N to
21N, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N46W
to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues from 10N45W to 12N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is currently observed from 07N to 15N, within
300 nm of the African coast, and slowly drifting west. Convection
is limited across the remainder of the monsoon trough/ITCZ 
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Northerly flow west of Hurricane Ian is dominating the basin.
Winds are strong to near gale force in the northeast Gulf and
moderate to fresh elsewhere. Buoys are reporting significant wave
heights of 12 to 15 ft across the east-central Gulf. Seas are
generally 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. These conditions will gradually
begin to abate Thursday.

For the forecast Hurricane Ian is now a Category One hurricane near 
27.5N 81.4W with 972 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 7 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian will weaken 
to a tropical storm near 28.4N 80.9W Thu morning then be near 
29.6N 80.3W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Ian will be in the
Atlantic near 31.3N 80.1W Fri morning, then move inland to 33.1N 
80.5W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.0N
81.2W Sat morning. Ian will become extratropical and move into the
Central Appalachians Sat evening. Ian will dissipate late Sun. 
Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf 
Thu night into Fri night, with light breezes and slight seas 
persisting across the basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a cold 
front may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and 
dissipate. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

6 to 10 ft northerly swell from Hurricane Ian is propagating 
through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, 
winds are gentle to moderate across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast Hurricane Ian, well N of the area, is producing 
large N swell in the Yucatan Peninsula. This swell will persist 
into Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will persist across the basin. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features Section above for more information on
Hurricane Ian and Tropical Depression Eleven.

The pattern in the western Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane 
Ian, which is currently inland over Florida and moving NNE. 
Tropical storm force winds have reached the Atlantic coast with a 
recent scatterometer pass confirming they extend from West Palm 
Beach, FL to South Carolina. Buoys in this area are reporting 
10-12 ft seas on a building trend. Fresh to strong winds extend as
far east as 70W. An outer rainband from Ian stretches across the 
western Atlantic from 31N78W to 21N77W.

An upper-level low centered near 21N62W with an associated 
surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 
19N to 26N, between 60W and 67W. Outside of the impacts from 
Hurricane Ian and Tropical Depression Eleven, winds are mainly 
moderate across the basin with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian is now a Category One 
hurricane near 27.5N 81.4W with 972 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at
7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian
will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.4N 80.9W Thu morning then
be near 29.6N 80.3W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Ian will be in 
the Atlantic near 31.3N 80.1W Fri morning, then move inland to 
33.1N 80.5W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 
35.0N 81.2W Sat morning. Ian will become extratropical and move 
into the Central Appalachians Sat evening. Ian will dissipate late
Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist 
through late Fri. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish 
across the region Sat into Sun. 

$$
Flynn