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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 261647

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1635 UTC.


A tropical wave has been introduced along 32W, south of 11N, based
on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic guidance. The wave is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 08N and between 29W and 36W.

A tropical wave is along 65W, south of 20N, moving westward at 
10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 10N to 19N and between 57W and 65W. The tropical wave 
will move through the eastern Caribbean Sea today, the central 
basin on Mon and the W Caribbean Tue. Showers are likely for 
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight into Wed.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N31W and then from 04N34W to
04N51W. A squall line is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 10N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 10N between 27W and 41W. 


A 1019 mb high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Hispaniola,
extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico result
in moderate to fresh SE-S winds west of 87W. Seas in these waters
are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas 
prevail. No deep convection is noted across the basin. Hazy 
conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across 
most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a relatively weak high pressure ridge will
continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf 
into the upcoming week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern
over the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will exist
W of 87W through early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds 
will exist E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W 
afterwards while winds east of 87W generally become light and 
variable, except S of 26N where they become gentle NE winds. Seas 
will be slight to moderate during the period. A cold front is 
expected to move across the NE Gulf Tue through Wed, followed by 
gentle to moderate W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
near the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late 
afternoons and at night through the period. Hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western 
Gulf. Smoke is noted over the Bay of Campeche. 


Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave in the eastern Caribbean.

The previously-mentioned tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is
producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms that
is affecting the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters. Farther west,
an upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic to the 
western Caribbean and continues to transport tropical moisture 
northward. The combination of these systems will enhance the 
development of showers and thunderstorms over the islands in the 
central and eastern Greater Antilles during the next several days.
Heavy downpours are possible, especially in mountainous areas, 
leading to flash flooding. Please see your local weather service 
for more information. Generally dry conditions are present

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean Sea,
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central
and eastern Caribbean, and west of 85W. Seas in these waters are
3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the
remainder of the basin. Hazy conditions continue to affect the
Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over Central America.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin,
except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras
at night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over
the central Caribbean are forecast to increase to fresh to
strong speeds late Mon night through late Tue night, then
shifting to between 75W and 80W for the rest of the forecast
period. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will continue 
to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to this 
part of the Caribbean through Mon. Strong gusty winds and rough 
seas are likely with this activity. The wave may lose some 
definition as it moves across the central Caribbean during mid 
week. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America is 
likely to change over the Gulf of Honduras into the early part of 
the upcoming week. 


Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave in the central Atlantic.

Broad ridging dominates the tropical Atlantic, anchored by a 1028
mb high pressure system near the Azores. A surface trough enters
the basin near 31N58W and continues southwestward to 26N66W. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident on satellite 
imagery ahead of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds 
and seas of 4-6 ft are present north of 25N and east of the trough
to 52W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring south of 
20N and west of 35W and south of 27N and east of 35W. Seas are 5-8
ft in the areas described, with the highest seas near 20N21W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extends from 31N58W to 26N66W
and to near the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms moving eastward are north of 24N and east of 60W. 
Relatively weak high pressure elsewhere will change little during 
the next few days. The associated gradient will support mostly 
moderate winds and seas north of the Bahamas and off NE Florida by
Mon night as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a 
weakening cold front that will move across the waters north of the
Bahamas Tue into midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will 
precede the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may 
accompany the front.