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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXNT20 KNHC 172332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging north of the Caribbean will enhance E to NE tradewinds to minimal gale force each night near the coast of Colombia from tonight through Monday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and clear the basin past South Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are forecast behind the front Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and extends to 01N24W to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 00W-15W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 22W and the coast of South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge of high pressure covers the northeast and north- central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico is weakening. Isolated showers are over the SW Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will dominate the basin through Friday. Fresh to strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. A strong cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning. It is likely that a line of showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and exit the basin past South Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning. Winds to gale force are forecast behind the front Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, with winds of 30 kt covering the remainder of the Gulf. Seas in the central Gulf will build to 9 to 13 ft Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the Central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are also seen from 17N-19N between 80W-83W. GOES-16 satellite images show relatively higher amounts of moisture over the northern Caribbean with dry air over the southern Caribbean. Scattered showers are seen north of 16N between 65W-69W. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Monday night. The winds along the immediate coast of Colombia will reach gale force each night from tonight through Monday night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and weaken. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning, and then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 27N71W to the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are over eastern Cuba as well as the area from 25N-28N between 70W-75W. A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 25N63W, dissipating to 21N73W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm of the front between 47W- 59W, in an area where upper-level diffluence is prevalent. Surface high pressure ridging extends over most of the eastern half of the basin north of 20N. Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward Bermuda through Saturday night. The winds will veer to the S, then strengthen from Saturday through Sunday morning east of Florida. A strong cold front will push off the Florida peninsula on Sunday afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W on Sunday night, and then extend from 31N66W to 22N78W on Monday. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either side of the front N of 29N early Sunday into Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen