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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 221035

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0920 UTC.


Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough
currently digging southward over the western Caribbean will lift 
slowly northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri. 
This feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical 
moisture to support widespread deep convection across eastern 
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. Latest 
computer model guidance suggests the highest rainfall 
accumulations to be across Hispaniola. Residents in all the above 
locations should remain alert for significant rainfall and 
potential flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather 
office for more specific information.


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal
coast near 14N16.5W then curves southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ 
continues westward from 07N21W across 08N35W to 05N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09.5N
between 10W and 34W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 35W and 41W. 


Fair and hazy skies prevail across the entire Gulf early this
morning, as smoke from agricultural fires across Mexico and 
Central America continues to disperse across the basin. Earlier 
observations and satellite imagery indicated visibilities to 
between 4 and 6 nm across large portions of the western and 
central Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the eastern seaboard of
the U.S. southwestward into the NE Gulf. This pressure pattern is
producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin W of 
85W, except moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters of 
the western Yucatan, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas 
are 2 to 5 ft to the W of 85W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 2 ft prevail for the eastern Gulf, including the Florida 

For the forecast, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico will continue across all but NE portions of the Gulf 
through tonight. High pressure will remain NE of the basin through
the end of the week, producing moderate to locally fresh E to SE 
winds across the waters W of 90W, and gentle to moderate winds E 
of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night through Sun. 


Please read the Special Features section about the Significant 
Rainfall Event. 

A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from the western
Atlantic along 74W S-SW across west-central Cuba to the coastal
waters of Panama. Meanwhile, a surface trough extends from the
southwest basin NE to the east coast of Jamaica and through the
Windward Passage. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is occurring N of 14N and along and east of this 
surface trough to the Mona Passage and 68W, and is supported by 
the upper trough.  

Fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are present 
at the central basin N of 14N. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 4 
to 6 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of 
the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America 
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 3 to 5 nm across the 
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the deep layer trough will continue to dig 
southward across the western Caribbean through tonight, then lift 
out to the NE Thu through Sat. This feature will support active 
weather across the central portions of the basin, which will 
gradually shift NE and into the Atlc through Fri. Fresh to strong 
E to SE winds in the central Caribbean today will shift 
northeastward tonight through Thu while diminishing to mostly 
fresh speeds. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the 
north-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate 
trade winds across the E portions and moderate to fresh winds 
across NW portions of the basin. Smoke due to agricultural fires 
in Central America continues across the Gulf of Honduras, and 
spreads NW to the Yucatan coast. 


A sharp mid to upper-level trough extends from 31N74W southward 
across the northwest Bahamas to beyond west-central Cuba. A trough
extends from 31N63W to 1013 mb low pressure near 28N74.5W then 
continues to the Florida Keys. To the southeast, a surface trough
extends through the Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas. 
Convergent low level wind flow to the east of this trough is 
producing scattered moderate convection from north of the Greater 
Antilles to beyond 31N, between 65W and 74W, including waters near
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the NE coastal waters of Cuba. 

Light to gentle winds generally prevail NW of the trough across
the SE Bahamas, where seas of 3 to 4 ft in NE swell. Otherwise, 
the Atlantic Ridge extends from NW of the Azores W-SW to the
central Atlantic and then westward along 25N to 70W. The ridge is
supporting gentle anticyclonic winds between 20N and 30N, to the
west of 30W, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. South of the ridge and 20N,
moderate trade winds prevail from the Cabo Verde Islands to the
Lesser Antilles. Seas across this zone are 4 to 7 ft. Light to 
gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 
seas of 6 to 9 ft in southerly swell prevail elsewhere E of 30W in
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough through the NW
Bahamas will drift SE and weaken through tonight. Another trough 
has developed across the Windward Passage and SE Bahamas, and will
drift eastward through Thu night. Weak low pressure is expected 
to develop along the trough just N of Hispaniola Thu night and 
shift N-NE through Sat night, accompanied by moderate to fresh 
winds and active weather.