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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 082323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high
pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas and low pressure over
northwestern Colombia will continue to support pulsing winds to 
gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia 
through next week. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and
to the west of the highest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of 
Liberia near 06N10W and continues SW to near 03N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N20W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate convection is from the Equator to 03N between 30W and 
47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida
into the Gulf waters. A trough is analyzed W of the Yucatan 
Peninsula over the central Bay of Campeche. A gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow dominates most of the basin. Seas are generally
2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. Some clouds are
moving northward across the basin under a southerly wind flow. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon
and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula into late next 
week. Otherwise, high pressure will support gentle to moderate 
winds and slight to moderate seas through the middle of next 
week. A cold front may move off the Texas coast by late next 
week. Under a persistent southerly wind flow, a warm and moist 
airmass, moving over colder nearshore waters will favor again 
the development of dense marine fog over parts of the Gulf coast 
tonight through mid-morning Sun, particularly in the vicinity of 
SE Louisiana, and the Florida Big Bend where a dense fog advisory
is already in effect. Visibilities may be less than 1 NM. Please,
exercise caution in reduced visibilities.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Feature Section about a Gale Warning for
waters offshore Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of area and the 
Colombian low is supporting pulsing winds to gale force off the 
coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
remainder of the central Caribbean, with rough seas. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage with seas 
of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere 
along with moderate seas. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, is moving across the basin producing isolated to 
scattered passing showers. The trade winds are transporting 
patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, from the 
Caribbean into parts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the
Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, aside from the winds off Colombia, fresh NE to
E trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder 
southwestern and central Caribbean through next week, with winds 
pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the 
Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to 
locally fresh NE winds will prevail across the remainder of the 
basin. East swell will bring rough seas near the Windward and 
Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea
through late next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N25W to 26N40W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the 
front. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a ridge, with a 1023 mb high pressure centered NE 
of the Bahamas, a 1027 mb high pressure located N of area near 
35N37W, and a 1026 mb high pressure situated NE of the Madeira 
Islands 35N12W. Latest scatterometer data indicate moderate to 
fresh trades along the southern periphery of the ridge, mainly 
south of 22N, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing north of 
22N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft S of 22N, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast W of 55W, mainly fresh trade winds will prevail
south of 25N into late next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds are expected into the middle of next week next week. East 
swell will bring rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of 
Puerto Rico into late next week. 

$$
GR