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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220910
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic gale warning: A cold front has moved off northern
Florida with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of
it. Fresh to strong winds precede the front N of 29N, and are
arriving behind the front also. Winds will increase to gale force
late this afternoon over the waters N of 29N W of the front. The 
gale force winds will lift N of the area late tonight. Seas of 4
to 7 ft in the vicinity of the front will build rapidly, peaking 
around 14 ft near 31N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and extends southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N24W to just NE of Brazil near 01N48W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180-240 nm
either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, as well as from 01N to
07N between 48W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from just N of Cape Coral, Florida to just S
of Tampico, Mexico with thunderstorms possible along it. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are behind the front, while gale 
force winds which were previously occurring offshore S Tamaulipas 
and N Veracruz having diminished below gale force. Light and 
variable winds are ahead of the front, except moderate to fresh 
W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 4 ft ahead of the 
front, and 4 to 7 ft behind the front, except 7 to 10 ft S of 25N
and W of 93W.

For the forecast, the front will push SE of the basin by this 
evening with conditions gradually improving. High pressure will 
dominate in the wake of the front through mid-week. Winds will 
increase by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens,
which will also build seas. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near
the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the basin is supporting moderate to fresh
trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean,
3 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 4 ft in the eastern
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater
Antilles will support moderate to locally fresh trades across the
central and eastern Caribbean, locally strong near the N coast of
Colombia and near the Gulf of Venezuela at times. Mainly gentle 
to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to 
fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore 
central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into 
the Caribbean N of 19N tonight, possibly bringing a brief period 
of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the
basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special features section for information on gale 
conditions expected across the NW waters, associated with a cold
front.

Ahead of the above mentioned cold front, a ridge extends from
31N52W to near the northern Bahamas. Gentle winds are right under
the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere W of
50W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft W of 50W. To the E, low pressure is
just NE of 31N35W with associated developing gale conditions. A
cold front extends from the low through another low, 1010 mb, near
28.5N32W to 21N42W where it transitions to a remnant trough
continuing into the NE Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are N of
28N between 29W and 37W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. Some
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead 
of the cold front and near both lows. A ridge is to the E, from 
31N24W to 18N47W, with light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas 
under it. Mainly moderate trades prevail across the remainder of 
the waters, along with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front mentioned above will reach from 
31N73W to near Stuart, Florida this evening, from just E of 
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and 
dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos 
Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas 
will be near the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing to gale speeds
N of 29N late this afternoon and spreading eastward through 
tonight. Winds will diminish below gale late tonight. Seas will 
build to 14 ft with the strongest winds. The remnant trough is 
forecast to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly 
tranquil conditions for the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky