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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 151704

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W 
to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil 
near 00N48W. A secondary ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 03S28W to
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both ITCZ's
between 26W-40W.


A 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the basin extends across
the area with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing. 
A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf from 28N97W to
21N96W. No significant convection is present across the basin at 
this time.

High pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through 
Friday. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across 
the western Gulf by Friday night ahead of a strong cold front 
forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Saturday. Gale conditions 
are possible behind the front. 


In the upper levels, a ridge is in control of the Caribbean, with
subsidence covering the entire basin. Latest scatterometer data 
indicates gentle to moderate east winds across eastern and 
southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong east winds are off the 
coast of Colombia south of 13N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers 
are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and 
west of 86W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central 
Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds will prevail elsewhere. 


A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N60W 
to 24N77W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh northerly 
winds behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
extend 90 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 26N. To the east, 
a surface trough extends from 26N55W to 23N56W. Another trough is
to the east, extending from 32N45W to 26N48W. Last trough is
analyzed over the east Atlantic from 27N30W to 23N17W. Scattered
showers are noted along all the troughs.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 27N65W to 
the southern Bahamas on Wednesday, then stall and weaken from 
26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thursday. A reinforcing surge of 
cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas
Wednesday night and Thursday. Southerly winds will strengthen this
weekend east of Florida.

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