000
AXNT20 KNHC 200546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 16N southward, 
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 37W and 41W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 89W from the northern
Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala into the East
Pacific. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring at the eastern Bay of
Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara and Mauritania, then curves southwestward across 
10N35W and a 1012 mb low near 08N43W to 07N46W. Numerous moderate
to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and up to 180 
nm south of the monsoon trough between 23W and 33W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is evident within 200 nm of the low.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near western
Panama.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms at the southwestern Bay of Campeche. Another surface
trough across the spine of Florida is inducing isolated
thunderstorms offshore of Naples. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate
with locally fresh NE to E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist
at the Florida Straits, Bay of Campeche and northwestern Gulf.
Gentle SE to S winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will prevail across the Gulf through 
the middle of the next week producing gentle to moderate winds 
with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong NE to E 
winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily 
and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. Looking 
ahead, winds may increase to fresh across the northeastern Gulf 
by Thu as a low pressure moves across the southeastern U.S. 
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase over most of 
the eastern and central Gulf beginning next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection
along lee of Cuba and over southern Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are
evident at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at
the north-central basin, lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Gentle
to moderate ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the rest of
the northwestern basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the gradient between a 1021 mb high off eastern
Florida and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds 
over the south-central basin through early next week. Fresh to 
locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail 
in the Windward Passage through tonight. At the same time, expect 
fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish 
slightly Sun and into next week as the western Atlantic high 
pressure weakens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent trades are coupling with divergent flow aloft to
produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
coastal border of Venezuela and Guyana. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical ridge 
extends southwestward from a 1029 mb high at the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N45W to a 1021 mb high off eastern Florida. 
These features are promoting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 
to 4 ft north of 26N between 50W and the Florida east coast. 
Farther south from 10N to 26N between 50W and the Bahamas/Lesser 
Antilles, and farther east from 10N to 31N between 35W and 50W, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate. For 
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to 
moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in
mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the western Atlantic 
through early next week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow 
will prevail along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and moderate seas north of Hispaniola to about 22N, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage, will diminish late 
tonight. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as high 
pressure weakens over the western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary
moves to over the offshore waters of northeastern Florida. This 
front will then stall, with low pressure possibly develop along 
it.

$$

Chan