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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 221805

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.


A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis from 01N to 11N
along 21W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is being engulfed by
a Saharan Air Layer Outbreak, which is limiting the convection to
scattered moderate and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough or
from 02N to 07N between 18W and 28W.

A tropical wave is just to the E of the Windward Islands with axis S
of 14N and along 60-61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Abundant deep
layer moisture is to the E of the wave axis mainly associated 
with the ITCZ. Divergent flow aloft supports a broad area of
showers with isolated tstms from 06N to 11N between 50W and 62W.
Recent scatterometer data show gusty wind within this region of


The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 04N22W to 03N30W. The ITCZ begins near 03N30W and continues to
05N50W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
off the W coast of Africa from 01N to 09N between 04W and 18W.


A weak surface ridge dominates the eastern half of the basin while
lower pressure is building W of 90W ahead of a cold front near the
coast of Texas. A pre-frontal trough extending from south-central
Louisiana to the southern tip of Texas is generating scattered 
showers and tstms N of 25N and W of 91W. In the E Gulf, however, an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with
a surface trough of low pressure that at 1500 UTC extended from
29N88W to 22N89W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data show fresh
to strong winds and rough seas associated with this trough. 
Environmental conditions do not appear favorable for significant 
development before this system moves inland over the central Gulf 
Coast in a day or so. Regardless of development, the system could 
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the 
central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western 
Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, a ridge will build from westward from the 
western Atlantic across the northern Gulf through mid-week. The 
associated gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with a 
cold front west of the area will support fresh southeast return 
flow over the western Gulf Tue through late Wed. The cold front is
expected to move into the western Gulf on Thu followed by gentle 
to moderate north to northeast winds. Otherwise, pulses of fresh 
to strong winds are expected off the north coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, mainly at night. 


Scattered showers prevail over the NW Caribbean as well as
Nicaragua and Costa Rica adjacent waters. This activity of showers
associated with the Central American Gyre event is forecast to
continue through Wed. Localized periods of heavy rain are still
possible within this period. Strong high pressure over the SW N
Atlantic waters is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds
across most of the basin, except for fresh to strong winds over
the central Caribbean. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except
for 7 to 8 ft in the central basin. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to southeast winds and 
rough seas will persist into tonight over parts of the south- 
central and northwestern Caribbean between high pressure to the 
north and lower pressure over southern Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish tonight through Mon as the pressure areas weaken although
fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse over the Gulf of 
Honduras and off Colombia into mid week. 


For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will shift slightly 
southward today, then change little through mid-week. It will 
shift eastward Thu ahead of a cold front moving across the 
southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for
mainly gentle to moderate winds across the region through the 
period, except for pulsing of moderate to fresh east winds between
Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Mon night. Moderate
northeast swell may impact the waters east of 60W through Tue, 
then subside into Wed.