AXNT20 KNHC 261030
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Feb 26 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strengthening
high pressure NE of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea will induce gale force northerly winds near
the coast of Morocco Mon night through Tue night. Meteo-France is
forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions
of the marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Expect northerly gales
from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast of Morocco. Seas will
build to 15 to 20 ft on Tue between the Canary Islands and the
coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure across the NW Bahamas early
this morning will slide northeastward and strengthen modestly over
the next few days. As it does this, the pressure gradient between
persistent low pressure over NW Colombia and the associated ridge
will create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds
across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each
night, and are expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night
within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to
10-11 ft during the period of gales. Winds are then expected to
reach gale-force again Wed night and Thu night, with peak seas
building to 10-12 ft each night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
The monsoon trough exits western Africa near 10N14W and extends
to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is depicted
from 00N to 04N between 07W and 18W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure of 1022 mb is over the NW Bahamas and extends a
ridge westward to the NE coast of Mexico. Fair skies dominate the
Gulf tonight. Numerous agricultural fires across Mexico are
producing light smoke across much of the near and offshore waters
within 180 nm of the coast from Merida to Brownsville. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds and seas 2 to 3 ft prevail north of 23N
and east of 90W including the Straits of Florida. Moderate NE to E
winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are present north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Over the far western Gulf, moderate to locally
fresh SE to S return flow has developed, with seas to 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, the high pressure over the NW Bahamas will
slide NE across the Atlantic through Wed. Fresh southerly return
flow will develop over the western Gulf today through tonight,
then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the
next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed afternoon. This
front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend region to S
Texas midday Thu, then stall and lift northward Thu night and Fri.
A weakening cold front extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward across western Haiti to the NE coast of Honduras.
A surface trough is just SE of the front and extends across the
Virgin Islands to 17N67W. Scattered light showers are across the
western basin, between the front and 19N. Scattered moderate
shower activity is across the Atlantic waters of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico and extends into the adjacent Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are behind the
front, over portions of the NW Caribbean. In the south- central
Caribbean, fresh NE to E winds prevail, with locally strong winds
off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are 5 to 7 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate, except fresh winds through and
downwind of the Atlantic Passages. Seas of 4 to 5 ft generally
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sink slowly
SE through Mon night and gradually stall from the NE coast of
the Dominican Republic to Jamaica before dissipating Tue. High
pressure will move E-NE across the western Atlantic Mon night
through Thu and produce fresh to strong trade winds across
central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages.
Strong trade winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force
at night, Tue night through Thu night.
A cold front extends from 31N54W southwestward across western
Haiti and into the western Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough is
120-150 nm ahead of the front, and extends across the Virgin
Islands into the extreme NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 21N within 120 nm E of the pre-
frontal trough. Scattered moderate showers are also noted across
the Atlantic coastal waters of the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, to the west of the trough. Fresh winds are E of the pre-
frontal trough to 48W, to the 28N. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft.
Behind the front, moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail between
the front and 65W and to north of 29N. Elsewhere west of the
front, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is developing. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft in westerly swell to the N of 26N between 68W and
the front, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.
The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure
centered near 45N26W. A ridge extends from this high pressure
southwestward to 22N57W. Between 48W and the Lesser Antilles,
winds are moderate with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh trade winds and
seas exceeding 7-9 ft are generally east of 48W. Moderate to
fresh NE to ENE trades and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail between 20W and
35W, from 13N to 30N. North of 20N and east of 25W, fresh to
locally strong NE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall and
weaken from 26.5N55W to the N coast of Dominican Republic by Tue.
High pressure offshore of the Florida coast will slide NE across
the W Atlantic through Wed. The next cold front will sink into the
NW waters Thu and reach from 31N54W to 28N70W to the NE Florida
coastal waters Fri morning.