000
AXNT20 KNHC 121825 AAA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024

UPDATED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE METEO-FRANCE
MARINE ZONE IRVING

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES:

The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast 
consists of the threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in the 
marine zone IRVING. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours 
after the initial 36-hour forecast period. Please, refer to the 
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains 
of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N14W, to 04N30W, and 04N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate 
to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has passed through the entire Gulf during the last 24
hours. The front now passes through central Cuba to Honduras.
Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire area. A surface
ridge passes through the north central Gulf, toward the
southwestern corner of the area.

Rough seas in general cover the Gulf from the east central 
sections, toward the SW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the
coastal waters from Louisiana to the middle Texas Gulf coast. 
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong N
to NE winds, and rough seas, are from 22N to 28N between 81W and 
87W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas, are elsewhere from 18N
to 28N between 83W and 97W. 

Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will continue to diminish 
through this afternoon in the Bay of Campeche and eastern Gulf. 
However, strong ridging over the SE US will continue to support 
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the SE Gulf and the 
Straits of Florida through Sun night. Afterward, moderate to fresh
E-SE winds across the basin will further diminish to gentle to 
moderate speeds by Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean to central Cuba, 
to 20N80W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The front is 
stationary from 20N80W, to NW Honduras. Strong N to NE winds, and
rough seas, are from 17N northward from 77W westward. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the 
waters that are from 19N southward from 86W westward; and from 15N
southward from 80W westward.

Strong to near gale-force NE to N winds, and rough seas, are from
10N to 12N between 74W and 78W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough
seas in NE to E swell, are elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 76W 
and 79W. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, are 
from 16N to 18N between 70W and 72W. 

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, southwestward
beyond the southern Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 12/0000 UTC, are: 0.11 in Curacao; 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico; and 0.05 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan 
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a 
cold front extending across the central Bahamas to central Cuba 
and into Honduras will continue to support fresh to strong NE 
winds and moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the 
Windward Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh
NE winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by 
Mon afternoon as the broad high pressure shift NE and then 
eastward to the north-central Atlantic waters. The high pressure 
will also support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW
Caribbean through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds over 
the E Caribbean will diminish on Fri as a surface trough enters 
the region. Otherwise, the front will stall this morning over the 
NW Caribbean before dissipating tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N71W, to central Cuba, to 20N80W in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The front is stationary from 
20N80W, to NW Honduras. Strong northerly winds, and rough seas, 
are from the cold front westward. Fresh or slower winds, and rough
seas in NW to N swell, are elsewhere from 23N northward from 72W 
westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is 
in the waters that are from 19N southward from 86W westward; and 
from 15N southward from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals 
in inches, for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC, are: 0.37 in 
Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 09N
northward between 47W and 67W. A N-to-S oriented surface trough 
is along 31N56W 23N55W 13N55W. Strong to near gale-force easterly 
winds, and rough to very rough seas, are within 600 nm to the east
of the surface trough and overall between 44W and 58W from 20N 
northward. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell,
are elsewhere from 07N northward between 35W and 67W. 
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390
nm to the east of the surface trough from 17N to 27N; and it is 
within 180 nm to the west of the surface trough from 19N to 28N. 

A cold front extending from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and 
into central Cuba will stall from 31N68W to the eastern Bahamas 
this evening and dissipate tonight into early Fri. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and rough seas affecting the Florida offshore 
waters, and the northern and central Bahamas will prevail and 
expand in areal coverage through the weekend as strong high 
pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the 
pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the 
east. Frequent gust to gale force winds may develop over the 
northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. Winds will start
to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon. 

$$
mt/sd