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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



857 
AXNT20 KNHC 271034
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strong high 
pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea has induced gale force northerly winds near
the coast of Morocco that will persist through Tue night. Meteo- 
France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern
portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. 
Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast 
of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft by late Tue 
between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will 
continue to move slowly northeastward and strengthen modestly 
over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent 
low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will 
create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across the
south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and are 
expected to reach minimal gale-force Tue night within 90 nm of 
the coast of Colombia. Seas there will build to 10-11 ft during 
this time. Winds will remain below gale-force during the day then
increase again to minimal gale-force again Wed night and Thu 
night. Peak seas will build to 9-13 ft each night. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of 
Africa near 09N13.5W and continues southwestward to near 00N23W. 
The ITCZ begins near 00N23W and extends southwest to 04S26W to near
02S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection dots the
waters from 02.5N southward to beyond the Equator between 14W and
48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1027 mb is centered near Bermuda and extends a
ridge southwestward to central Florida and then westward across
the middle Gulf along 26N to south Texas. Meanwhile, broad low 
pressure is over the central U.S. and northern Mexico. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure is 
supporting moderate to fresh south to southeasterly flow over most
of the basin W of 85W this morning, with strongest winds across
the SE Texas coastal waters. Seas have built to 5-7 ft across NW
portions and are 2-4 ft elsewhere. This return flow across the
basin is transporting light smoke from numerous agricultural 
fires across Mexico across much of the basin, with smoke most
dense and producing hazy conditions within 120 nm of the coast 
from Merida to Brownsville. The basin is otherwise precipitation
free this morning.

For the forecast, the ridge across the Gulf this morning will 
shift E-NE through Wed, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Gulf
midday Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly
return flow will prevail over the western Gulf today, then expand
into eastern portions Tue night into Wed. The cold front will 
sink into the northern Gulf late Wed through Thu, then stall from 
the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Thu afternoon, before
lifting N Thu night into Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia 
starting Tue night.

A weakening stationary front extends from along the north coast of
Hispaniola west-southwestward across the Windward Passage where 
it become ill-defined. Broken low clouds and scattered light 
showers associated with the remnants of this former front extends 
from the waters north of Jamaica southwest to the NE coast of 
Honduras. Overnight ASCAT satellite wind data revealed fresh 
northeast winds over the Windward Passage and fresh to strong 
winds over the waters S of 13.5N off of Colombia. High pressure is
centered near Bermuda, north of the stationary front. The 
pressure gradient affecting the Caribbean basin is producing 
moderate trade winds across the eastern basin, and gentle to 
moderate trades NW portions. Seas are 6 to 9 ft offshore of 
Colombia in the strong winds, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere central 
portions. 

For the forecast, the lingering stationary front just north of 
the NE Caribbean will begin to drift W today and gradually 
dissipate by Wed. High pressure across the western Atlantic will 
move E-NE through Thu night and produce fresh to strong trade 
winds across central portions of the basin and through the 
Atlantic Passages Tue night through Thu. Strong trade winds 
offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night, Tue night 
through Thu night. Strong high pressure across the western 
Atlantic will build southward toward the basin Thu night through 
Sat to freshen the trade wind flow across north- central and 
eastern portions. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a 
far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning.

A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N51W southwestward to 
22N60W to the northern coast of the Hispaniola, and across the 
Windward Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and
scattered light to moderate showers are noted within 180 nm 
southeast of the front to the south of 25N, and extend across the
Virgin Islands and into the north coast of Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted within 210 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. Moderate 
to fresh easterly winds are ahead of the front north of 25N and 
east to near 42W. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high 
pressure near Bermuda and the front is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds south of 25N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail across
this area from the front to the SE Bahamas. Elsewhere within 180
nm W of the front, fresh NE winds prevail with seas 7 to 8 ft in
NW swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere 
W of the front the Florida, with seas of 3-6 ft in N-NE swell. 

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure 
of 1037 mb analyzed well north of the area near 41N23W. A ridge 
extends from this high southwestward to 30N48W. Between 52W and 
the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in speed with 
seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are 
generally east of 52W to 30W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas continue north of 20N and between 
21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 
seas of 10 to 11 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of the stationary front will begin
to drift W later today, and gradually dissipate through Wed. High
pressure near Bermuda will slide NE across the W Atlantic through
Wed night. The next cold front will sink into the NW waters early
Thu, reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida Thu evening, 
then begin to drift northward to the W of 70W Fri through Sat. 
Strong high pressure across the NW Atlantic will build southward 
across the regional waters during this time and produce strong 
easterly winds E of 73W Fri night through Sat.  

$$
Stripling