Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 010457

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0455 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 
surface ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures 
over Colombia will continue to support winds pulsing to gale 
force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia overnight through 
Mon night. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show a large area
of strong to gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, with
the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas are expected 
to peak at 12-14 ft each night under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm-force extratropical cyclone
positioned between Nova Scotia and the Azores will continue to 
push northeastward over the next few days. Large NW to N swell 
generated by these winds are going to push south of 31N east of 
60W starting Sat morning. This will cause combined seas to build 
and peak between 14-16 ft north of 28N, and 11-13 ft seas 
reaching as far south as 20N Sat afternoon through Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 01N30W to
01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the
ITCZ west of 29W.


A 1031 mb high pressure system located near Bermuda extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is 
affecting the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted 
offshore NW Yucatan, especially south of 23N and east of 95W, and 
also in the Straits of Florida. Seas in these waters are of 4-7 
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, strong high pressure along the U.S. eastern
seaboard extends a ridge southwestward to the western Gulf, and 
producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds over most of the basin, 
except for locally strong E winds off the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula. The high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold 
front that will enter the N Gulf Sat through Sun night, leading to
diminishing winds and seas through Sun. Atlantic high pressure 
will build in again over the area early next week. Pulsing fresh 
to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change 
little into early next week.


Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

No deep convection is evident across the Caribbean Sea. Outside of
the south-central Caribbean, latest scatterometer satellite data 
depict moderate to fresh easterly winds in the north-central and 
eastern Caribbean waters. Seas are 6-9 ft in the areas described.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds are also found in the Gulf of 
Honduras and the Windward Passage, along with seas of 3-6 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent 
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure centered just west of Bermuda and low pressure over 
Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean through early next week. Winds near the coast of 
Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. 
Winds will pulse to strong across the Windward Passage through Sat
evening and to strong in the Gulf of Honduras every night through
the forecast period. Seas will build to 10 ft in mixed N and E 
swell this weekend across the Tropical North Atlantic, then slowly
subside through early next week.


Please read the Special Features section for details about 
Significant Swell at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N55W to 22N70W. A few
showers are noted near the frontal boundary. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds north of the front, mainly south of 27N and between 50W and
70W. Farther west, tightening pressure gradient between the 1031
mb high pressure near Bermuda and strong low pressure system in
the central United States support fresh to strong southerly winds
off NE Florida. Seas behind the cold front to the the coast of
Florida are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N55W.
Fresh to strong easterly breezes are also affecting the waters
south of 22N and west of 60W, with the strongest winds at the
entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in the waters described are
6-8 ft.

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found south of 22N and
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. The wave heights in these
waters are 6-8 ft. Fresh to near-gale force NE-W winds are present
north of 17N and east of 20W in the easternmost Atlantic. The
strongest winds are noted off Morocco. Seas in these waters are
7-11 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 23N55W
to 22N69W will weaken and dissipate Sat. Strong high pressure 
building in the wake of the front is producing fresh to locally 
strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the central 
and southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong southeast winds have 
developed over the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance
of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the 
southeastern U.S. Sat night. This cold front will move southeast, 
become stationary from near 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Mon night,
then weaken through Tue night. Fresh to strong southwest winds 
will develop ahead of the front and will shift eastward across the
waters north of about 29N through Sun before shifting north of 
the 31N Sun night.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Apr-2023 04:58:09 UTC