Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 161734

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


A broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre, is 
centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-18N between 
87W-92W to include W Honduras, Belize, and N Guatemala. This 
system is expected to move west toward Belize. The probability of
tropical cyclone development during the next is moderate, but the
potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over 
areas of mountainous terrain is high. Refer to your local 
meteorological service for specific information on this 
potentially dangerous weather pattern.

A stationary front extends from S Mississippi near 31N88W to a 
1014 mb low over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N94W to the Bay of 
Campeche near 20N96W. Strong high pressure in cold air behind the 
front has induced gale force winds south of 26N. Winds are 
expected to diminish below gale in the SW Gulf by Thu.


A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 25W from 03N- 
14N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct maximum 
in moisture around the wave axis. Isolated moderate convection is 
from 06N-13N between 14W-25W. 

A tropical wave axis is along 58W from 05N-21N, moving west at 15
kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave, 
and there is a local maximum in TPW. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 07N-19N between 48W-60W. 
Moisture associated with this wave will enhance showers and 
thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles today through Wednesday, 
with this activity spreading into the eastern Caribbean later in 
the week.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 72W south of 
21N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of 
the wave axis. It is expected to become diffuse and ill-defined 
within the next 24 hours as it moves into the western Caribbean.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W 
to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 09N24W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N28W and extends to the coast
of South America near 00N49W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
either side of the ITCZ. 


A stationary front is over the W Gulf of Mexico. A Gale is in the
cold sector S of 26W. See the special features section above.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 28N-30N 
between 93W-94W. Similar convection is over the Bay of Campeche 
from 19N-22N between 95W-98W. Scattered showers are over the
central Gulf from 22N-26N between 88W-92W. The remainder of the 
Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly fair 
weather. The front is expected to remain stationary for the next
few days. 


A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become 
diffuse and ill-defined by Wed. Another tropical wave is forecast
to move into the eastern Caribbean tonight.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean from 08N-15N between 
81W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia from 
04N-10N between 72W-78W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
is over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola,
from 18N-20N between 60W-72W. This convection is mostly due to
upper level diffluence. 

See the special features section above for more information 
about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre.  


See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. 

A 1023 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 33N65W.  
pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A surface trough is in the
east-central Atlantic from 26N38W to 17N35W enhancing trade wind 
showers north of 19N between 30W-45W. This area of showers is 
moving west at 10-15 kt.

For additional information please visit


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Oct-2018 17:34:17 UTC