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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171743

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.



A tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the
Colombian low will allow winds to pulse to minimal gale force off
the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela at night starting tonight.  
Seas are expected to be 10 to 13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W S of 13N. There is
currently no significant convection associated with this wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W S of 13N. Scattered
showers are seen near this wave from 05N-11N between 45W-48W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W S of 15N. Scattered
moderate convection is seen particularly to the west of this wave
from 11N-13N between 61W-64W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W S of 17N. There is
currently no significant convection associated with this wave.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W to 08N29W, then 
W of a tropical wave near 07N30W to 07N46W. The ITCZ then 
continues W of another tropical wave near 07N47W to the coast of 
Brazil near 08N60W. Scattered showers are seen along the ITCZ from
04N-09N between 31W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 
along the ITCZ from 07N-11N between 53W-60W. 


A digging mid-level trough is extending into the NW Gulf. This is
leading to a squall line that has moved off the Texas coast and 
into the NW Gulf from 26N-29N between 91W-97W. Expect frequent 
lightning and gusty winds with this. A 1014 mb mesohigh is 
analyzed behind this squall line near 29N94W. Moist tropical air 
continues to be transported across the SE Gulf and across Florida 
leading to scattered moderate convection across the area in 
addition to isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf. This activity 
is seen from 24N-29N between 80W-84W. Ridging can be seen across 
the rest of the basin. Light to gentle southeasterly winds are 
seen across most of the basin, with moderate winds behind the 
squall line.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Friday. 
Moderate to locally fresh southeast to south winds will continue 
for most of the basin. 


See the special features section in regards to the developing gale
north of Colombia.

Two tropical waves are traversing the basin. See the Tropical 
Waves section for details. Upper level ridging extends across the 
basin which is leading to quiet conditions with no significant 
convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the 
Windward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are seen north of 
Colombia, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and western
basin. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the northern 

Minimal gale force winds are expected north of Colombia and 
Venezuela beginning tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night. 


A mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence is leading to more 
rounds of scattered moderate convection from the Straits of 
Florida to the western Atlantic, including the northern Bahamas. 
This convection can be seen from 24N-31N between 75W-80W. 

A mid-level trough is extending across the central Atlantic,
bringing a cold front into the waters near 30N19W to 27N39W.
Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin with a 1024 mb
high analyzed near 25N43W and 26N58W. 

A surface trough will move slowly eastward off NE Florida Tuesday 
and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough.
Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected just N of Hispaniola 
at night. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the region through

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