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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



577 
AXNT20 KNHC 211753
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 15W S of
18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model guidance depicts the 
formation of this wave in the area. Abundant moisture is noted
in the latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along
the vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 06N-10N between 12W-21W including inland 
areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W S of 18N,
moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave 
accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered 
moderate showers are seen from 03N-12N between 31-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N58W to 11N61W 
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 150 nm 
east of the tropical wave from 12N-21N. 

A tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico is located along 92W from
23N southward across the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Pacific
05N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the 
Bay of Campeche from 18N-24N between 89W-95W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 08N35W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 
07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical 
wave, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon trough 180 nm 
north and 200 nm to the south. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the north
and central Gulf of Mexico. In the Bay of Campeche, tropical 
wave is present from 23N92W. Aside from the convection near 
the tropical wave, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
present across the eastern Gulf coast from 21N-27N between 
81W-88W. 

A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will cross the SW Gulf 
today and tonight, with fresh to strong SE winds expected tonight 
into early Thu following wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high 
pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through the weekend, 
maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the 
region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean along with upper level
diffluence associated to an upper trough is enhancing broad 
area of disturbed showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-22N 
between 78W-86W in the Yucatan Channel. Recent GOES 16 SAL imagery
indicates the presence of Saharan dust in the central Caribbean 
Sea. In the SW, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
seen from NW coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica mainly 
associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Further east, scattered
showers are associated with the tropical wave moving across the 
Lesser Antilles. ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the 
central Caribbean and light winds across the eastern Caribbean. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW 
Caribbean through this evening in the wake of a tropical wave over
the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf 
of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong trades will 
persist over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. A 
tropical wave will pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, move
across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Thu night, then 
cross the western Caribbean Fri through Sat. Another tropical 
wave will approach the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an
upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over 
the SE and central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is to the east of the Bahamas from 22N-26N between 
71W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere 
from 24N-31N between 61W-70W associated to a surface trough near
30N64W to 25N66W. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced
by a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N49W
and a 1022 mb high centered near 32N32W. 

A middle-level low over the SW forecast waters will continue to 
support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas 
through Sat. Surface high pressure will prevail elsewhere along 
with gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally
strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the 
Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near 
gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco 
and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands.

$$
MMTorres