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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 131052

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 23N 
with axis near 25W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between the coast of Africa 
and 28W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to 
24N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 28W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 70W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are noted N of 15N between 67W and 71W.


The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near 
19N16W to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 
07N58W. For information about convection please see the tropical 
waves section.


Surface high pressure prevails across the basin, anchored by a 
1015 mb high centered near 25N91W. Current conditions allow for
light variable winds, except for moderate to fresh return flow W 
of 95W and moderate W winds in the NE basin N of 28N. 

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the next 
several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight 
seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near 
the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. 


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
moving across the basin.

High pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the 
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail over the central
and E Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area 
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to locally strong 
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. A 
tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western 
basin by Mon night and move out of the basin by early Thu. 


Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves 
moving across the basin.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters 
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through Mon night due to the 
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower 
pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong 
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through the entire 
forecast period.