000
AXNT20 KNHC 152322
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07.5N12W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01.5N19W to 00.5N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed south of 05N between 06W and 37W. Similar 
convection is noted south of 03.5N and between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak and narrow high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic
near Bermuda southwestward across N Florida and then NW across the
NE Gulf of Mexico. This pattern combined with a broad upper ridge
building across the basin is producing fair tranquil weather 
across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are 
present from the Straits of Florida to the NW Gulf, where seas  
are 3-5 ft, and have recently built to 6 ft across the S Texas
coastal waters. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found 
in the NE Gulf, north of 26N and east of 90E.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extending into the NE
Gulf will dominates the basin through Fri. Strong winds will 
pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the next several 
evenings. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf 
tonight into Tue. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will prevail
through most of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed in the Caribbean Sea, along 69W. 
To the west of the trough, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have developed from offshore of NE Nicaragua
northeastward across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and the Windward 
Passage. Thunderstorms are more numerous across the mountainous 
interior of Hispaniola. Generally fair conditions are found 
elsewhere in the Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the broad subtropical ridge north 
of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in the deep tropics 
results in strong easterly trade winds in the south-central 
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found in the north-central 
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, eastern Caribbean and
in the lee of Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent in the remaining waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse at night in
the SW Caribbean, N of Colombia through the nest few days. Fresh 
to occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward 
Passage, S of the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for 
the next few days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and 
moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the
middle of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near 31N58W and 
continues southwestward to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated mild thunderstorms are evident on satellite imagery
within 150 nm W of the frontal boundary. A surface ridge straddles
the front, to the north of 30N. A 1027 mb high is centered NE of
Bermuda and extends a ridge southwestward to northern Florida.
Except for moderate to locally fresh NE winds within 150 nm west
of the front, winds are anticyclonic and light to gentle west of
the front. Seas are 5-7 ft on both sides of the front, and 2 to 4
ft elsewhere within the ridge.

Farther east, a broad 1007 mb low pressure system is located near
34N31W. Associated scattered convection is occurring N of 31N. 
Morning scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong 
cyclonic winds north of 28N and between 25W and 40W. Wave heights 
in these waters are 8-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 
33N37W. Seas ranging 8 to 10 ft extend as far south as 10N and as 
far west as 60W. Meanwhile, a trough is noted south of the low 
along with a cold front spiraling from the northern semicircle to 
near the Canary Islands. Gentle winds are noted E of 26W to the 
coast of Africa. Fresh winds are noted S of 22N between 40W and 
the Greater Antilles. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually 
dissipate through Tue. Large N-NE swell across the waters 
from 65W southward to the Leeward islands will linger through the
middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over 
waters N of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions. 

$$ 
Stripling