Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 101801

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


An eastern tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward across a
1011 mb low near 12N33W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 30W and 40W. 
Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next 
few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become
less favorable by this weekend.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 20N southward, 
and moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N
to 13N between 46W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W from 20N southward
across the Leeward Islands into northeastern Venezuela, and 
moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are evident near the Islands of Trinidad and 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the
Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the
East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf of Honduras
and near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of northern 
Senegal across a 1011 mb low at 12N33W to 12N49W. Other than 
convection associated with the low/tropical wave, scattered 
moderate convection is occurring south of the trough from 05N to 
10N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 26W. An ITCZ 
continues from 12N49W to 13N59W. No significant convection is 
observed near this feature.


A mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms east of 93W from 23N to the 
Gulf States coast. A weak surface ridge stretches west-
southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to south of Brownsville, 
Texas. It is sustaining light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas 
for most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 
to 4 ft exist near the Florida Keys.

For the forecast, the mid-level trough will prolong scattered 
showers and thunderstorms E of 95W. Atlantic surface ridging will 
be the dominant feature across the basin through early Fri. This 
will result in mainly gentle to moderate return flow. On Fri, the 
ridge will weaken, and winds will become light to gentle and 
continue through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will 
also pulse from moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the
northwest Yucatan through early next week. 


Convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of Nicaragua, south of Puerto Rico and
near the northwestern Venezuela coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves
section for additional weather in the basin. The Bermuda High 
continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire Caribbean 
Basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft
are found over the south-central basin, north of Colombia.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and winds of 5 to 7 ft are seen for the
north-central and west central basin. Gentle monsoonal winds and 5
to 6 ft seas are present across the waters north of Panama. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will remain nearly stationary 
through today before weakening. This will result in fresh to 
strong trade winds persisting across portions of the central and 
southwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight. Winds will diminish 
to between moderate and fresh late tonight into Thu as a tropical
wave moves across the eastern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
trade winds are forecast for the central and eastern Caribbean 
from Thu night through early next week.


An upper-level low east of Bermuda at 32N52W is producing
isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 54W and 62W. Refer to 
the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda High is providing 
light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between 45W 
and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades
and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen farther south from 15N to 23N 
between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and near the Canary 
Islands north of 16N between the northwest African coast and 
35W/45W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southeasterly winds with
4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending across the 
region from the Bermuda High will weaken today. The fresh to 
locally strong winds N of 25N will diminish tonight, becoming 
moderate to locally fresh by Thu. Light to gentle variable winds 
are expected elsewhere through Sat. Otherwise, a strong tropical 
wave will reach the offshore waters near the Lesser Antilles by 
Sat with an increase in winds and seas over that region through 
early next week. 



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Aug-2022 18:01:17 UTC