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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 082346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure of 1029 mb located 
north of the area near 31N78W combined with relatively lower 
pressure in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing
nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean, near
the coast of Colombia through late week. Seas will peak to 13 or 
14 ft within the area of the strongest winds. Latest ASCAT data 
suggests that winds are very near gale-force in this part of the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for 
more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the 
NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, reach from 
Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, 
and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly 
gale-force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri 
afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon 
through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay 
of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front, especially in the southwestern Gulf. Winds 
and seas will gradually diminish from W to E on Sun. Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: A cold front extends from near 31N49W 
southwestward to 26N54W and to 23N64W, where it becomes a 
dissipating stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas. Large
N swell long-period N swell at 12-14 ft is present to the NW and
N of the front. Seas are in the range of 8-12 ft, except for
much higher seas of 12-17 ft from 16N to 29N and between the 
front and 69W per latest altimeter data behind the front. Fresh 
NE to E winds are N and NW of the frontal boundary to near 25N,
while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere N and NW of
the frontal boundary. The aforementioned swell will continue to 
propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the
Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of 
Liberia near 07N11W to 03N17W, where latest scatterometer data 
indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N25W, crossing the 
Equator at 30W and to near 01S39W. Scattered moderate convection 
from 02N to 04N between 26W-32W and from 01N to 03N between 
34W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upcoming strong cold front is forecast to be followed by 
gale-force northerly winds. Please see the Special Features 
section for details.

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low that is analyzed near
Corpus Christi, Texas southward to just E of Brownsville and to 
inland Mexico at 25N98W, while Atlantic high pressure protrudes
westward across the far northern Gulf to near 30N90W. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms are ahead of the front to near
92W and N of about 25N. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts
are likely with the storms. E of this activity, broad 
anticyclonic flow associated to the high pressure cover the 
central and eastern Gulf areas. Seas are in the range of 5-7 ft, 
except for higher seas of 6-8 ft in the west-central gulf from 
22N to 26N and W of 94W, where strong N winds are evident.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will reach from
the coast of Mississippi to the south-central Bay of Campeche 
Thu morning before weakening and dissipating Thu night. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms over the NW Gulf are likely to 
continue ahead of and along the front through tonight over the 
NW Gulf. The storms will move E to the north-central Gulf 
tonight and into Thu morning. Frequent lightning and strong wind 
gusts are likely to continue with with these storms. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds will briefly follow this front over the 
west-central Gulf through tonight. A stronger cold front will 
enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, reach from
Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, 
and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly 
gale-force winds are expected behind this cold front. Please see 
the Special Features section for details regarding these upcoming
conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. 
Please read the Special Features section for more details. 

Latest ASCAT data reveal fresh to strong trade winds across the 
central Caribbean S of 16N, and fresh to locally strong winds 
over the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and 
in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 9-14 ft over the south-central 
Caribbean, 9-10 ft S of Hispaniola, 6-9 ft in the Windward
Passage  and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

Pockets of shallow moisture embedded in the easterly trade wind 
flow are over some sections of the seas, mainly N of 13N.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the 
central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the
eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at 
night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. 
Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee 
of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest at
night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan 
Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. 
Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are 
expected in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
an ongoing Atlantic Swell Event behind a central Atlantic cold 
front.

A cold front extends from near 31N49W southwestward to 26N54W 
and to 23N64W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to
the southeastern Bahamas. Broken low and mid-level clouds along 
with possible scattered showers are along and to within 90-120 nm
E of the front are seen N of 25N. Cold-air stratocumulus clouds
are N and N of the front. Highest N of the front are about 17 ft
from 27N to 29N between 55W-65W. Elsewhere N of the front seas
of 8-12 ft prevail. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the
Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel, including the approach of 
the Windward Passage. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence
of a 1036 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this high and lower pressures in the vicinity 
of the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong NE to
E winds S of 23N and E of 55W. Seas of 9-11 ft in mixed NW swell
and NE wind waves are within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening while 
weakening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas to 16
ft follow the front. This swell event will continue to propagate
across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater 
Antilles tonight into Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds are 
expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward 
Passage through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front 
will move off NE Florida late Fri night. A low pressure may 
develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia 
by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front 
across the forecast region Sat night into Sun night. Strong to 
near gale-force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides 
of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force W winds possible 
north of 30N Sun., 

$$
Aguirre