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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 220003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure ridging building across the western Gulf 
to the west of a stationary front is leading to gales offshore 
Veracruz, Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with seas of 12 to 16 
ft. Very rough seas will continue in the southwestern Gulf, 
reaching up to 18 ft offshore Veracruz tonight. The stationary
boundary will transition to a cold front tonight and move SE of
the area on Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale
tonight, however fresh to strong N to NE winds will gradually
diminish through Sat night.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the 
National Hurricane Center, at the website, for more details. 


The monsoon trough extends to Liberia adjacent waters near 05N11W
where the ITCZ continues along 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N W of 


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a 
gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary boundary stretches from Cedar key, Florida to 25N90W
and end in the Bay of Campeche near 18N92W. Overcast skies and rainy
conditions are across the northern half and western half of the
gulf. While near gale to gale force winds and rough seas are in
the SW basin, fresh to strong N to NE winds are to the N and W of
the front N of 24N where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range.  

For the forecast, the front will transition to a cold front
tonight and exit the basin by late Sat. Winds are expected to 
diminish below gale tonight, however fresh to strong N to NE winds
will gradually diminish through Sat night. High pressure will
build across the basin in the wake of the front. The high will 
shift E Mon, allowing fresh to strong southerly flow to develop in
the NW Gulf, ahead of another cold front that will move off Texas
Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will follow this front as it 
moves through the eastern Gulf Tue into Tue night. 


Fresh trade winds continue in the eastern Caribbean with seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range while lower pressure over Colombia enhances
the winds to fresh to near gale force in the south-central basin
where seas reach 11 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail in
the NW Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the surface pressure gradient between W 
Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and 
Panama will continue to support pulsing winds to near gale force 
within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through tonight. Sea 
heights will build to a range from 8-11 ft. As the ridge shifts 
eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken some,
although fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central
basin through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong trade 
winds will cover mainly the waters between 72W and 80W into the 
weekend. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the far NW 
Caribbean by Sun morning shifting winds N to NE by early next 
week. Light to gentle winds will prevail elswhere.


A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N78W to near 
Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong winds acompany the front
with building seas. Showers and some strong thunderstorms will 
also continue to develop along the boundary, which will move SE 
through the basin through the weekend. High pressure in its wake 
will shift eastward through Tue as another cold front move across 
the waters NE of northern Florida Tue night. Fresh southerly winds
will precede this front. 

The remainder SW N Atlantic and central subtropical Atlantic
continue under the influence of high pressure ridging, which is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds to the north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands, and fresh to strong winds to the
north of Hispaniola. Over the NE subtropical waters, a broad area
of low pressure is centered near 29N26W. A broad area of fresh to
locally strong NE winds is between the low and the ridge in the
region between N of 22N between 35W and 55W.