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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 141709

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1640 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 21N 
southward, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 18N between 22W and 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W/64W 
from 22N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20 
kt. A surface trough is north of the tropical wave from 22N61W 
to 28N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the eastern 
Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 61W and 66W. Numerous moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted across the northern 
portion of the wave and the surface trough from 17N to 28N 
between 52W and 62W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 17N 
southward to Venezuela near 12N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 68W and 

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 20N 
southward to central Honduras, moving W at 15 kt. There is no 
significant convection noted at this time. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 
20N16W to a 1010 mb low near 17N21W to 11N29W to 08N36W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 19W and 53W. 


A surface low inland near Corpus Christi has a trough along it 
across the Texas coast. This system is producing numerous 
moderate to strong convection across the western Gulf from 22N 
to 29N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are 
noted off the Texas coast with seas up to 6 ft off the Corpus 
Christi coast. Surface and radar observations indicate that the 
circulation has become a little better defined, however the 
center is expected to move inland over southern Texas and 
further significant development is not anticipated.  Regardless 
of development, heavy rains are forecast across southern Texas 
through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash 
flooding. For more information about the potential for heavy 
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National 
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. This 
system has a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and 
5 days. 

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
moving southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 27N to 
30N between 83W and 89W. These storms have frequent lightning 
and potentially gusty winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
across the central and eastern Gulf with seas 2-3 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan 
Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and 
evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is 
expected to stall along the northern Gulf coasts from southeast 
Louisiana to northern Florida through Mon. 


Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the NW Caribbean with 
light winds and seas 1-2 ft. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough S of 12N 
between 75W and 79W. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted 
across the basin with seas 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central 
Atlantic SW to the SE Bahamas will gradually weaken through Tue. 
A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along 61-62W will 
move westward across the Lesser Antilles today, reach 70W Sun 
night, move across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue, and 
across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will yield 
mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin 
thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in across the 
region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and bring a return
to fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean.


A weak cold front is dropping southward across the NE Florida 
coast, stretching from 31N78W to near Jacksonville, FL near 
30N81W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 30N77W to near 
Melbourne, FL near 28N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted across the SW N Atlantic from 22N to 31N 
between 70W and 80W. Gentle northerly winds are noted behind the 
front with moderate southerly winds ahead of the front and near 
the trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds 
are noted from 23N northward to the surface high, with gentle to 
moderate easterly winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range 
4-6 ft. 

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high near 
25N35W across the central Atlantic to Florida. A trough is noted 
in the central Atlantic from 22N36W to 30N40W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 27N to 31N between 39W and 

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak frontal boundary extends 
from near the Florida-Georgia border E-NE across the W Atlantic 
and will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active 
weather will continue well ahead of the front, N of 28N and W of 
68W through tonight. A second frontal boundary will approach the 
NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to produce similar weather. High 
pressure over the central Atlantic extends to the central Bahamas 
and will weaken through Tue as a broad surface trough associated 
with a tropical wave moves across the southeast waters and into 
the SE Bahamas. High pressure will build into the Bahamas Wed 
through Thu to freshen trade winds S of 24N.