000
AXNT20 KNHC 091806
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gulf of Mexico Storm-Force Wind Warning...

The forecast position for a cold front, in about 18 hours,
during the early morning hours of Sunday, will be 30N91W
26N97W. Expect N gale-force winds, and seas building to
8 feet, to the NW of the cold front. Expect NW storm-force
winds, and sea heights that will be building and ranging
from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 21N southward from 95W westward.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

The Gulf of Mexico cold front eventually will move into
the western Atlantic Ocean, to the east of Florida.
The forecast position of the cold front for the late night
hours of Sunday and during the early morning hours of Monday
is: 31N78W 28N81W. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 29N northward from the
cold front westward. Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights
that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 29N northward from
the cold front eastward to 73.5W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the
Offshores Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ 
Passes through the coastal plains of NW Sierra Leone,
to 03N41W, to 06N55W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 
16N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the cold front, and the accompanying 
storm-force winds, and rough seas.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle,
to SE Louisiana, to south central Texas.

An east-to-west oriented cold front is along 23N, passing
along the NW coast of Cuba, to 23N89W in the south central
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through the NW part
of Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to 21N97W along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate
to locally strong, cover the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate seas cover the offshore waters from the Florida
Panhandle to Texas to NE Mexico, and in the Florida Straits.
Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly return flow covers the area. 

Moderate to locally fresh return flow is expected to
continue through today ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to enter the NW Gulf this evening. The front
will reach from Mobile, AL to Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning,
from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan
Peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon morning.
Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the fron
 across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward
to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. 
Minimal storm force NW winds are expected offshore of
the Veracruz area Sun afternoon. Seas are forecast
to build to 16 to 18 ft with the strongest winds.
In the eastern and central Gulf, strong to near-gale
force winds will follow the front. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front
as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and
seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon.
Looking ahead, the aforementioned front may stall
across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early
next week, before moving back northward as a warm
front toward the middle of next week. The pressure
gradient between very strong high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure associated with the
warm front may induce fresh to strong E winds and
building seas across the northern Gulf by the middle
of next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE winds are from 16N southward between 70W and
80W. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the central
one-third of the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are in
the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE to E winds
are in the remainder of the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate and fresh NE to E winds are in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 17N southward between
72W and 82W. Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. The exception is for the coastal waters
of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W 06N80W. Broad
700 mb cyclonic wind flow is from Nicaragua southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 15N southward from 75W westward. Shallow patches
of moisture are supporting isolated showers throughout
the rest of the area.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time
period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.72 in Montego
Bay in Jamaica; 0.38 in Guadeloupe; 0.17 Bermuda; and
0.11 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will continue
through tonight. Strong high pressure N of the area
will continue to bring a large area of strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Sun,
with near-gale force winds at night near the coast of
Colombia. Looking ahead, the next cold front will
enter the northwest Caribbean early Mon, followed
by fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 
9 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front will
stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before
retreating back north of the basin as a warm front
by mid-week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details
about the cold front, and the accompanying 
gale-force winds, and rough seas.

A stationary front passes through 31N38W 23N50W 21N60W
22N72W in the SE Bahamas. A cold front is from 250 nm to
340 nm to the north and northwest of the stationary front
from 63W eastward. A surface trough is along 42W/44W from
13N to 24N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the north of the line 31N32W 12N40W 18N60W,
to the Florida Straits. A 1028 mb high pressure center
is near 34N17W. A second 1028 mb high pressure center is
near 32N69W.

A surface ridge is along 33N13W, to a 31N24W 1026 mb
high pressure center, to a 27N41W 1020 mb high pressure
center, to 27N40W and 19N62W. 

Rough seas are from 15N northward between 50W and 70W.
Moderate to rough seas are to the north of 31N42W 16N26W
20N16W. Slight seas are from the Bahamas southward.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 19N to 24N between
55W and 65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from
Jamaica to 26N. Mostly fresh to some moderate winds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
between 70W and 78W. 

A stationary front extends from near 22N55W to 21N70W.
The front will remain nearly stationary along 20N-21N
today. Strong high pressure N of the area will push the
front farther south on Sun toward the northern Leeward
Islands as a dissipating front. The pressure gradient
between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower
pressure associated with the stalled front will continue
to produce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of
24N through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow 
will set up over the waters east of northeast Florida
to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This
cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast
waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are
likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales
possible Sun night N of 29N between NE Florida and
73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front.
The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from
Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is
expected to move northwestward as a warm front.
The pressure gradient between very strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure
associated with the warm front may induce fresh
to strong NE to E winds and building seas to the
east of Florida by mid-week. 

$$
mt/gr