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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 241204

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC. 


The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 
02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01N30W to the Brazil
near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 01N-05N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01S-03N between 47W-52W.  



A cold front is extends from N Florida near 31N81W to the SE Gulf
of Mexico near 25N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. Radar
imagery shows scattered showers near Lake Okeechobee Florida.
Scattered showers are also within 45 nm of the front over the
Gulf. A 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W with
5-10 kt anticyclonic surface winds. Aloft, broad upper level 
westerly wind flow spans the Gulf with scattered to broken upper 
level clouds.

The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf 
by Wednesday morning, while it will remain nearly stationary in 
the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move SE of 
the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build across the 
area behind the front. Another weak cold front is expected to move
just offshore the Texas coast early on Thursday. This next cold 
front is expected to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday 


15-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Costa Rica and Panama from
08N-11N between 79W-84W. Similar convetion is inland over N
Colombia. An upper level trough is over the central Caribbean.
Upper level diffluence is over the E Caribbean with broken to
overcast high clouds and possible isolated showers. 

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trade 
winds near the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of 
Venezuela through early Tuesday afternoon. These winds then will 
pulse to fresh to strong at night and into the afternoons 
beginning tonight. The winds are expected to continue through the 
period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening cold front 
will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. 


Prefrontal convection from the Gulf of Mexico front is over the W
Atlantic. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 24N
between 72W-78W, to include the N Bahamas. A stationary front is
over the central Atlantic from 32N50W to 26N70W. Scattered
moderate convection is N of 29N between 51W-55W. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1030 mb 
high is over the E Atlantic near 36N31W. 

An upper level trough extends from a 32N09W cyclonic circulation 
center that is in the coastal plains of Morocco, to the Canary 
Islands and 25N15W at the coast of the Western Sahara, to 20N34W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward from 40W eastward. 

A very tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over 
the southeastern United States and strong high pressure in the 
western Atlantic Ocean, is producing strong to near gale force 
east to southeast winds in the northern waters west of 70W. These 
wind conditions will diminish gradually through Wednesday, while 
shifting northeast of the area. The broad low pressure center will
track northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast through 
Wednesday night. The low pressure center will push a weak cold 
front across the northwest part of the area on tonight, and then 
across the north- central waters on Wednesday and Thursday, before
stalling there on Thursday night. Another weak cold front will 
move over the far northwest part of the area on Friday and 
Saturday, and over the north central waters on Saturday night.

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