AXNT20 KNHC 090420
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 03N to
20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring mainly ahead of the wave from 09N to 14N, between 24W
and 32W. Environmental conditions appear conductive for gradual
development over the next several days while the system moves
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of this
week before environmental conditions become less favorable by
this weekend. The current outlook gives the disturbance a low
chance of development within 2 days and a medium chance of
development within 5 days.
A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 02N to
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 13N to 17N, between 35W and 39W.
Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from
02N to 20N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is
observed from 12N to 15N, between 50W and 55W.
A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 76W, from 02N to
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed ahead of the wave from 15N to 20N, between 75W to 85W.
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 11N51W. In addition to the convection associated with
the tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 12N, between 31N and 36N.
GULF OF MEXICO...
While convection has decreased this evening, isolated
thunderstorms are still observed throughout the basin. The
strongest convection is observed near the Yucatan Channel. A
persistent weak ridge across the northern Gulf is supporting a
gentle to moderate E-SE breeze throughout the basin. Seas are in
the 2-4 ft range. Expect localized gusts to gale force and
choppy seas in and around thunderstorms.
For the forecast, the northern portion of a tropical wave is
moving across the Bay of Campeche and will maintain active
weather across the SW Gulf through tonight. Otherwise the
Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through
late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Fresh NE to E winds will
briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night
and Wed night. A mid to upper-level trough from the Florida Big
Bend southward along the W coast of Florida will shift slowly W
through Tue night and to the north-central and NW Gulf Wed
through Fri, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across those
sections of the Gulf.
The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly
trade winds across the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern
basin with 5-7 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin
with 6-8 ft seas, and moderate in the NW basin with 3-5 ft seas.
Scattered moderate convection is also observed throughout the NW
For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will
remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW
and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to
fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave across the central
Caribbean accompanied by active weather will continue to move
westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active
weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the
N Atlc waters late Thu.
The Bermuda high continues to dominate the pattern in the
western Atlantic. Gentle E-SE wind and 3-4 ft seas increase to
moderate E wind and 4-6 ft seas south of 27N. Winds further
increase to a fresh breeze and 5-7 ft seas south of 25N. Strong
winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage.
Winds are lighter in the central Atlantic, with a gentle to
moderate breeze and 3-6 ft seas throughout. In the eastern
Atlantic, a moderate to fresh NE breeze dominates, with strong
winds near the Canary Island and along the coast of Western
Sahara. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, building to 9 ft in the areas
of strong winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain
centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region
through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before
diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A
surface trough extending from 30N78W to 27N80W will drift W and
inland through Tue.