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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



757 
AXNT20 KNHC 090420
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 03N to 
20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring mainly ahead of the wave from 09N to 14N, between 24W 
and 32W. Environmental conditions appear conductive for gradual 
development over the next several days while the system moves 
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical 
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of this 
week before environmental conditions become less favorable by 
this weekend. The current outlook gives the disturbance a low 
chance of development within 2 days and a medium chance of 
development within 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 02N to 
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed 
from 13N to 17N, between 35W and 39W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 
02N to 20N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is 
observed from 12N to 15N, between 50W and 55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 76W, from 02N to 
20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed ahead of the wave from 15N to 20N, between 75W to 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 
19N16W to 11N51W. In addition to the convection associated with 
the tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 06N to 12N, between 31N and 36N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

While convection has decreased this evening, isolated 
thunderstorms are still observed throughout the basin. The 
strongest convection is observed near the Yucatan Channel. A 
persistent weak ridge across the northern Gulf is supporting a 
gentle to moderate E-SE breeze throughout the basin. Seas are in 
the 2-4 ft range. Expect localized gusts to gale force and 
choppy seas in and around thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the northern portion of a tropical wave is 
moving across the Bay of Campeche and will maintain active 
weather across the SW Gulf through tonight. Otherwise the 
Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through 
late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Fresh NE to E winds will 
briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night 
and Wed night. A mid to upper-level trough from the Florida Big 
Bend southward along the W coast of Florida will shift slowly W 
through Tue night and to the north-central and NW Gulf Wed 
through Fri, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across those 
sections of the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower 
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly 
trade winds across the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern 
basin with 5-7 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin 
with 6-8 ft seas, and moderate in the NW basin with 3-5 ft seas. 
Scattered moderate convection is also observed throughout the NW 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will
remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW
and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central
Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to
fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave across the central
Caribbean accompanied by active weather will continue to move 
westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active 
weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the 
tropical
N Atlc waters late Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the pattern in the 
western Atlantic. Gentle E-SE wind and 3-4 ft seas increase to 
moderate E wind and 4-6 ft seas south of 27N. Winds further 
increase to a fresh breeze and 5-7 ft seas south of 25N. Strong 
winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage. 
Winds are lighter in the central Atlantic, with a gentle to 
moderate breeze and 3-6 ft seas throughout. In the eastern 
Atlantic, a moderate to fresh NE breeze dominates, with strong 
winds near the Canary Island and along the coast of Western 
Sahara. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, building to 9 ft in the areas 
of strong winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain 
centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region 
through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to 
fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before 
diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of 
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during 
the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A 
surface trough extending from 30N78W to 27N80W will drift W and 
inland through Tue. 


$$
FLYNN