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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave axis extends from 14N19W to 05N21W, moving W at 
15 kt. The wave is in a low shear environment. However, the GOES-
16 Dust RGB and Split window imagery show the wave is being 
affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave 
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave. 

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 12N31W to 
03N32W, moving W at 20 kt. Similar to the wave in the E Atlc, 
this wave is in a low shear environment. However, is being 
affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern wave 
environment. No deep convection is associated with the wave.

A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 13N48W to 
06N51W, moving W at 15 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery show dry air and 
dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong 
wind shear inhibits deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave axis passing the Windward Islands extends from 
14N53W to 05N56W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is within a 
very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, which is 
supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 16N between 
57W and 63W.

A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends from 
21N76W to 09N77W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a strong 
wind shear environment and GOES-16 middle and lower level water 
vapor imagery show very dry air in the region. These two factors 
are hindering the development of deep convection at the time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W 
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 05N46W. In addition 
to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
showers are from 01N to 07N between 20W and 29W and from 05N to 
11N between 50W and 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are over 
the NW Gulf of Mexico associated with a middle to upper level low 
interacting with a surface trough located along the Texas coast. 
Development of this system is not anticipated. However, heavy 
rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and 
southeastern Texas are likely to continue during the next few 
days. The pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and
a ridge anchored in the SE CONUS extending into the NE Gulf
support fresh to strong SE to S winds N of 22N between 91W and 
95W. The ridge is forecast to weaken by Tue evening and the winds
will diminish to less than 20 kt. Light to fresh return flow will
dominate across the basin thereafter through Wed night, with the 
strongest winds being in the western half of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades across the S central Caribbean will gradually 
decrease in areal coverage through Tue morning as high pressure 
in the SW N Atlc shift east. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at 
night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Wed morning.
Otherwise, a tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean 
between Jamaica and Haiti, however no convection is associated 
with it. See the tropical waves section for further information 
on this wave. A new tropical wave currently within 120 nm SE of 
the Windward Islands is forecast to enter the E Caribbean 
tonight along with showers. The wave is forecast to move S of 
Puerto Rico Tue morning and into the central Caribbean on Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Weak surface ridging extends from the NW Atlc SSW to just N of 
the Bahamas into the SE CONUS and support light to gentle winds 
along with fair weather. Lingering moisture associated with the 
passage of a cold front support isolated showers across the 
northern and central Bahamas as well as the Florida Straits and 
the SE Florida seaboard. To the east, a middle to upper level 
trough continue to support a frontal system analyzed as a 
stationary front from a 1018 mb low near 29N57W SW to 26N73W. 
Satellite enhanced imagery along with lighting density data show 
scattered showers and tstms within 135 nm ahead of the front. 
Latest scatterometer data show fresh winds nearby the low 
center. Otherwise, the remainder Atlc continue under the 
influence of the Azores subtropical ridge being anchored by a 
1030 mb high NE of the Azores Islands. The front is forecast to 
weaken and dissipate by Tue night. Surface ridging will dominate 
thereafter.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jun-2018 00:05:49 UTC