Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 252341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant 
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please
refer to the local meteorological service for more details. 


A tropical wave is in the east tropical Atlantic with analyzed along
21W from 13N-01N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly south of 06N
and east of 24W. 

A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
with axis along 49W and south of 14N. The wave is moving at about
15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly 
south of 08N.


The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to 01S45W. Scattered 
showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen along and south of the
monsoon trough from 07N-04N and east of 20W. Scattered showers are
also seen along the ITCZ.


Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1021 mb high 
pressure centered near 31N88W. Fair weather prevails under this 
ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle east-southeast winds in the northern Gulf, with moderate
winds in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds prevail 
across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over the Bay of 
Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W. 

High pressure over the southeastern U.S. will maintain moderate 
to fresh southeast flow over the northwest Gulf through Monday, 
then increase slightly to moderate to occasionally strong Monday 
night through early Wednesday as low pressure deepens over the 
central U.S. The flow then diminishes to gentle to moderate speeds
on Thursday. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will occur 
each night over the southwestern Gulf as the nocturnal surface 
trough moves off the the Yucatan Peninsula at night and to across 
the southwestern Gulf in the mornings. Smoke from fires in 
southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the 
southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early 
part of the upcoming week.


Scattered convection continues across the southern Central 
American countries with some of this activity entering the 
southern Carribbean. See the section above for more details on 
the excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

Thunderstorms are currently impacting the Greater Antilles,
particularly eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. Showers are also seen
in Puerto Rico. Light showers are also in the vicinity of the
Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the 
basin, with moderate to winds in the northwest Caribbean and north
of Colombia. Additionally, fresh winds are seen off the coast of 

High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. 
Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much 
of the western Caribbean through the early part of the upcoming 
week. A tropical wave east of the area will move across the 
Tropical N Atlantic Sunday through Monday night and into the 
eastern Caribbean Tuesday through Wednesday while it loses its 


Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves, 
currently moving across the central Atlantic. 

A cold front is dropping across the central and western Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N59W and extends west to 33N77W. 
Showers are occurring along this front. Meanwhile, a 1015 mb low 
is analyzed near 27N62W and a trough extends from this low to 
24N67W. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen 
along and north of this feature, from 31N-26N between 50W-60W. A 
dying stationary front is also seen from 31N43W to 27N54W. 
Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the 

The cold front will continue southward and become nearly 
stationary near 24N by early Monday, then dissipate by late Monday 
night. A high pressure ridge will build behind the front along 
roughly 28N Tuesday through Wednesday, then shift slightly 
northward late Wednesday through Thursday night.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-May-2019 23:41:19 UTC