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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 241020

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W 
to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to the coast of Brazil 
near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350 
nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-30W.


Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb 
surface high centered over the west Atlantic. This is producing 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole area. 

Weak ridging will persist over the Gulf through Monday,
then dissipate ahead of a cold front moving into the northern
Gulf waters Tuesday. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf 
through late Wednesday. Winds will increase to fresh to strong 
over the NE Gulf late Wednesday through Thursday as strong high 
pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. 


A shearline extends across the northwest Caribbean from 20N76W to
18N86W. Fresh northerly winds will prevail north of the shearline
through tonight. Scattered showers are occurring along and west 
of the shearline affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. Fresh to 
strong easterly winds will continue pulsing at night across the 
waters within 90 nm north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades 
are noted in scatterometer data over the remainder of the basin. 

The shearline will dissipate today. Northerly Atlantic swell will
move through the Caribbean passages east of Hispaniola through 
late today. A new cold front will move southward into the
northwest Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling and 
weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thursday. 


A cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N71W to 30N79W, then becomes
stationary to 31N81W. To the east, a stationary front extends 
from 31N56W to 20N74W. Scattered showers prevail across the 
stationary front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil weather 
conditions continue as surface ridging prevails, anchored by a 
1026 mb high near 31N41W. 

The stationary front will dissipate today. A second front 
reaching from Bermuda to northeast Florida will move south and 
stall along 24N by late today, before dissipating over the region 
tonight. A third front will move off the northeast Florida coast 
early Tuesday. Low pressure may form along the front by mid week, 
followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds. The front 
and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week.

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