723 
AXNT20 KNHC 130849
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period northwest 
swell is impacting the discussion waters, producing rough to very
rough seas. Seas 12 ft or greater associated to the swell are
found N of 30N65W to 26N60W to 30N35W. Seas are now peaking near 
18 ft north of 30N between 65W and 70W. Seas greater than 12 ft
associated to the swell will spread SE through the middle of the 
week before subsiding.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09W to 05N12W, where it
transitions to ITCZ and continues to 02N30W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 27W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered S of Louisiana. A cold front
extends from the low to near Tampico, Mexico, while a warm front
extends to the SE Gulf. Fresh to strong winds prevail across much
of the Gulf waters, except the SW Gulf where gentle to moderate
winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except foe 2-3 ft in
the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the low will lift northeast through the early 
part of the week, dragging a cold front across the southern Gulf 
through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough 
seas will follow the front, possibly reaching near-gale force off 
the coast of Veracruz tonight. The front will stall and become 
diffuse over the southern Gulf through mid-week. Winds and seas 
will diminish Thu as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, where
seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted. Moderate winds, and
seas of 3-4 ft, prevail over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, large long- period northerly swell moving 
through the Atlantic passages into the northeast Caribbean and the
Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands will 
subside early today. Meanwhile, high pressure building across the 
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over 
the eastern and south- central Caribbean, with strong winds 
pulsing off Colombia through the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a significant 
swell in the ATLC waters.

A cold front extending from 31N44W to 26N55W to 24N70W continues 
as a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Gale force winds
E of the front have shifted N of the area. Fresh to near gale
force winds are over the waters N of 26N between 38W and 60W.
Aside from the areas mentioned above, seas are 8 ft or greater N 
of 23N between 55W and 70W, and between 23W and 55W. Moderate to 
fresh winds are E of 30W, and gentle to moderate elsewhere E of 
65W. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft 
prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will stall along roughly 21N
today where it will dissipate Tue. Winds will decrease as high 
pressure builds over the basin today. Large swell east of 70W will
gradually subside west of 60W through late Tue. A reinforcing 
front will move into the waters off northeast Florida Tue, and 
reach from Bermuda to South Florida Wed, before stalling along 22N
through Thu. Another round of large, long- period NW to N swell 
will follow the reinforcing front over the waters east of 75W Thu,
and shift to east of 55W by late Fri. 

$$
AL