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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 141013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly 
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will 
pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are 
8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest seas off NW 
Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 15N17W and continues southward to 01N20W. The ITCZ extends 
from 01N20W to 00N30W and to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N and west of 
21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico 
dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather 
conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south 
of 28N, including the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 
to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted
north of 23N. 

For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong 
winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the 
evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds 
with slight to moderate seas can be expected through early next 
week. Winds will become fresh to strong over the western Gulf on 
Mon night into Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale
warning off NW Colombia.

Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the 
gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the
Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in 
the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 
ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the
lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the 
coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale- force tonight with seas to 12 
ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, S of
the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba for the next few 
days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas
can be expected across much of the basin through early next week.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf of 
Honduras mid- week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N69W, where it becomes a 
stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. Light showers are noted
near the frontal boundary. Fresh to locally strong southerly 
winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 29N and from the 
front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the 
western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary, supporting moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas, especially east of 
77W.

Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N28W to the Leeward 
Islands. Low pressure with a central pressure of 1010 mb is
lcoated near 32N33W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are noted around
this low and north of the shear line and east of 60W. Seas 
associated with this system range 12 to 17 ft N of 26N. South of
26N, seas are 8 to 11 ft stretching as far south as 12N and as far
west as Puerto Rico. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N62W to 
25N69W where it stalls from that point to eastern Cuba. The front 
is expected to continue to stall today and gradually dissipate 
through Mon. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will 
diminish early this morning. Rough seas accompanying the front 
will subside today. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will 
linger through Mon. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the 
wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil 
marine conditions expected. 

$$
AReinhart