Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 220921

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area and
low pressure over northern Colombia will combine for a tight
pressure gradient offshore of northwest Colombia where winds will
pulse to gale force during the overnight into the early morning
hours for the next several days. Seas will build to 8-10 ft during
the gale force winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa at the Cote
d'Ivoire and Liberia border near 04N07W to 02N24W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02N24W to 00N28W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 15W-20W, from
04N-06N between 41W-46W, and from 00N-05N between 48W-the coast 
of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-05N 
between 21W-26W, and from 00N-05N between 34W-41W.


A ridge of high pressure extends across southern Florida to near
the central Texas coast. Earlier scatterometer data showed gentle
to moderate return flow across the eastern half of the Gulf, with
moderate return flow across the western half of the Gulf. Seas are
3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf and 3-4 ft in the western Gulf.
Satellite imagery and surface observations show areas of dense fog
mainly across the inner southwest Louisiana and Texas coastal
waters which should dissipate by late morning.

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf later today, 
stalling across the northern Gulf tonight, then dissipating 
through Sat night. High pressure building north of the front over
the Carolinas will support an increase of SE winds and building 
seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds 
possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure forms 
over northern Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Mon 
as the high shifts farther east with a weak cold front moving into
northwest Gulf through Mon night. The front will stall over the 
NW Gulf and lift northwest Tue.


Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south central Caribbean northwest of the coast of

Elsewhere across the Carribbean, fresh to strong trades are noted
in the south central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to fresh
trades elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3-6 ft across the basin outside
of the stronger winds near the coast of Colombia. Mainly fair
conditions are noted on satellite imagery with isolated trade wind
showers possible.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong 
near the Gulf of Honduras early next week. Northerly swell will 
propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early next week.


West of 55W, 1020 mb high pressure near 25N78W extends a ridge 
to the Straits of Florida and to near 26N65W. Light to gentle
winds are noted underneath the ridge from 23N-26N, with moderate 
to fresh trades south of 23N. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are 
noted north of 26N, except fresh to strong north of 29N ahead of
an approaching cold front. NW swell of 7-11 ft prevails north of
23N and east of 68W, with 3-6 ft seas in mainly northerly swell
elsewhere outside of the Bahamas. Seas are 3 ft or less west of
the Bahamas.

A cold front will move into the waters between Bermuda and 
northeast Florida later today, reaching along 29N by Sat morning,
then merging with a reinforcing front along 23N east of the Turks
and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, stalling along 20N off the 
coast of the Dominican Republic by Mon evening. High pressure will
build over the area in the wake of this front. Yet another cold 
front may move across the basin Tue and Tue night. A series of
fresh northerly swell events will accompany each boundary with
building seas mainly across the northeast half of the basin.

East of 55W, an old frontal boundary lingers from 32N50W to 29N55W
with another remnant boundary within 90 nm ahead of it. An area of
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north of 25N
between 39W-51W. Farther east, high pressure is centered
near 30N26W. Moderate to fresh return flow is north of 22N and
ahead of the front, with gentle variable winds elsewhere north of
22N. Moderate to fresh trades are noted south of 22N. NW swell of
8-14 ft covers the majority of the area north of 24N/25N with 6-9
ft seas south of 24N/25N.


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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Jan-2021 09:21:48 UTC