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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022125
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure 
over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force 
winds off the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will peak at 10 
to 12 ft with the strongest winds. 

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along 
with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri
morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping 
across the Gulf. Seas will peak at 10 to 15 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both gale warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near the
border of Liberia and Sierra Leone at 07N11.5W to 04N16W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 04N16W to the Equator near 30W to near the 
northern coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is evident within 150 nm either side of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 12W and 25W, and within 300 nm 
either side of the ITCZ between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features 
section above for more details.

A stationary front extends from near Gulf Shores, Alabama to 1018
mb low pressure in the north-central Gulf near 27N93W to the coast
of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N96.5W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are
west of the front along with 4 to 7 ft seas per recent in-situ
observations. Gentle to moderate SE-S return flow is noted ahead 
of the front in earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are mainly 
2 to 4 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the stationary front will begin progressing 
southeastward as a cold front later tonight and Fri. NW to N 
winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over
the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri 
morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to 
strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere 
through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east 
through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the 
wake of the front. Conditions will be quiescent across the Gulf 
Sat night through Mon morning. Looking ahead, expect fresh to 
strong S to SE return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. 
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh 
to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage to
between Cuba and Jamaica, in the lee of Cuba, and also across the
central Caribbean Sea per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. The 
strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of 
Colombia, with 8 to 11 ft seas currently. Mainly gentle to 
moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off 
the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale 
force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the 
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A 
cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW 
Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades 
are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high 
pressure to the north will strengthen the E trades across the 
central/E Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic Sun through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge along 27N sustains moderate NE to E winds 
south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh to strong winds possible
near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5 to
7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, 4 to 6 ft seas with light to gentle 
flow prevails, except locally moderate winds offshore northern 
Florida ahead of a cold front off the Carolinas.

Ridging extends from the SW N Atlantic to near 21N35W to near the
Azores with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in mainly
NE swell under the ridge. Surface troughing extends over the 
central Atlantic, from 28N46W to 1016 mb low pressure near 
24.5N38.5W to 25N34W. Winds have diminished to moderate to fresh 
north of the surface trough to 30N per recent data. Moderate seas 
prevail in this area along with scattered showers. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except
locally strong winds in the lee of the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will 
shift east tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or 
near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching 
cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri 
afternoon and will reach Sat morning from 31N59W to S Florida. On 
Sun morning, the boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm 
front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast
Sun night. The second cold front will reach from 31N72W to the NW
Bahamas by Mon morning and from 31N60W to 27N55W by Tue morning.

$$
Lewitsky