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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 212147
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A storm force low just N of 
the area near 34N67W will move NE, dragging a cold front across 
the waters. Southerly flow will increase to gale force east of the
front briefly on Thu morning. Seas will build to 11 ft during the
period of gale force winds. Winds will then diminish gradually 
through Fri night.

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast on Fri. Southerly gale force winds will develop
over the NE Florida offshores Fri and Fri night. Seas will build 
to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds. 

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan 
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore 
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane 
Center, at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02S40W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05S to 05N between 05W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 08N between 20W and 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
locally fresh return flow, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail over the 
western waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are
in the far SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or
less are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward by midweek in 
response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of 
this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected 
in the western Gulf tonight into Thu morning. Seas will peak near 
9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish Thu afternoon as the cold
front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with 
moderate seas. Surface high pressure will built again in the wake 
of the front Sat evening through the remainder forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary extends from Hispaniola to Panama. Fresh to
locally strong winds are in the Windward Passage and E of
Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of the front.
Seas of 6-8 ft are in the SW Caribbean west of the front, with 4-6
ft elsewhere W of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are in the
SW Caribbean E of the front and light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere E of the front. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range E of the
front. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough 
seas will follow the front mostly off of Nicaragua and Costa Rica 
through early Thu morning. Winds will also pulse to strong in the 
Windward Passage through Thu morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds will follow the front and affect the Mona Passage and the 
Dominican Republic adjacent waters this evening through Fri 
morning as the front moves across Puerto Rico before moving E of 
the Leeward Islands Thu evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warnings 
in the western and Central Atlantic waters.

A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to Hispaniola. Fresh
to strong winds and seas of 7-10 ft are west of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds are within 60 nm E of the front and N of
28N. Farther east, high pressure prevails. Winds are in the
moderate to fresh range E of 40W, and gentle to moderate elsewhere
E of the front. Seas of 8-9 ft are from 12N to 24N E of 40W, and
5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue 
across the waters W of 65W through Thu. Rough to very rough seas 
will propagate into the waters N of 20N through the end of the 
week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will continue N of 29N between 66W 
and 70W this evening. The front will extend from 31N61W to E 
Dominican Republic this evening and from 31N54W to the Anegada 
Passage Thu evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are 
expected along this front through the end of the week. A new and 
stronger cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri, 
potentially bringing southerly gale force winds to the NE Florida 
offshores Fri and Fri night. 

$$
AL