000
AXNT20 KNHC 051033
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W 
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 04N to 08N between 20W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from 1017 mb low pressure near the Sabine Pass 
of Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 90 nm to the east of the trough.
Broad ridging dominates the Gulf elsewhere, anchored by 1025 mb
high pressure over central Florida. Moderate to fresh SE to S
winds are evident over the western Gulf, with 5 to 7 ft seas
except for near 8 ft off central Texas. Light to gentle breezes
and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will move southward this morning 
ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf late 
today. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri 
before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of 
the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds across the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting strong NE 
winds and rough seas in long plumes from eastern Cuba to 
Honduras, from the Windward Passage to the south of Jamaica, and 
off Cabo Beata on the south coast of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong 
NE winds and rough seas are also active off Colombia. Moderate to
fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting 
strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough seas across the 
northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and off Colombia. The high 
pressure will weaken today, allowing winds and seas to slightly 
diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the high pressure will build 
again Sat night, supporting increased winds and seas across mainly
the central Caribbean and Windward Passage through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N48W to the north coast of Haiti.
Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are noted along the
southern extent of the front south of 22N. Seas to 8 ft in NW
swell are noted near the front north of 28N. A broad ridge
extending from 1024 mb high pressure near Bermuda to the north of
the Bahamas is maintaining gentle breezes elsewhere west of the
front, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell. Farther east, a
ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure north of Madeira in the
eastern Atlantic to roughly 25N50W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas are evident south of the ridge from off northwest 
Africa and the Canary Islands to 45W Moderate to fresh winds are
noted farther west over the tropical Atlantic, with seas to 8 ft
in NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift of the 
area through late today. Another front will move off the coast of 
northeast Florida tonight, reaching from Bermuda to Straits of 
Florida by late Fri, from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Sat, then
will stall and dissipate along 22N through Sun. High pressure 
will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through Mon 
following the front. 

$$
Christensen