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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 220605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough
currently over the western Caribbean will lift slowly 
northeastward across central Caribbean through Fri. This feature 
is expected to combine with abundant tropical moisture to support
widespread deep convection across eastern Cuba, Jamaica,
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. Latest computer model 
guidance suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be across
Hispaniola. Residents in all the above locations should remain 
alert for significant rainfall and potential flash flooding. 
Please refer to your local weather office for more specific 


A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Senegal
coast near Ziguinchor, then curves southwestward to 06N22W. An 
ITCZ continues westward from 06N22W across 08N35W to 05N44W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the
trough from 04N to 09N between 10W and 21W, and near the ITCZ 
from 07N to 10N between 29W and 40W.


A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the 
Florida Straits. Otherwise, a surface ridge reaches southwestward
from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident across 
the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the central
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

Based on the latest observations and earlier satellite imagery, 
smoke and haze caused by agricultural fires in Mexico is reducing 
visibilities to between 4 and 6 nm at the western and central 

For the forecast, hazy conditions are expected across the western
Gulf through at least Wed afternoon. High pressure will remain to
the northeast of the Gulf through the end of the week, producing 
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and gentle 
to moderate winds east of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu night
through Sun.


Please read the Special Features section about a Significant 
Rainfall Event. 

A mid to upper-level trough extends southward from central Cuba to
Panama, providing divergent flow over the central basin.
Meanwhile, a surface trough over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is
sustaining moist southerly flow across the central basin. These
elements are joining forces to trigger scattered heavy showers and
strong thunderstorms from near the Windward Passage southward to
waters south of the Jamaica and Haiti. Isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over central and eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. 

Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
present at the central basin. Moderate to fresh ESE winds and 4 to
6 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage.

Latest observations along with earlier satellite imagery indicate
haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central America 
are causing reduced visibilities, down to 3 to 5 nm across the 
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the mid to upper-level trough mentioned in the
Special Features section will prolong active weather across the 
central basin, which will gradually shift northeast through Fri. 
Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the central basin through Wed 
will shift northeastward Wed night through Thu while diminishing 
to mostly fresh. A broad and weak trough will prevail across the 
central Caribbean Fri and Sat, yielding moderate trade winds 
across the eastern and northwestern basin. Smoke due to 
agricultural fires in Central America is going to spread
northwestward into the Yucatan coast.


A mid to upper-level trough runs southward from west of Bermuda
across 31N74W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond central Cuba.
Strong divergent winds east of the trough axis are coupling with
modest convergent southerly surface winds to generate scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 31N between 61W and 72W, including
waters near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough related
to a 1013 mb low near 28N75W is triggering isolated thunderstorms
north of 23N between 72W and 75W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are found
near the low and related surface trough north of 28N between 65W
and the Florida/Georgia coast. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is
supporting gentle winds and 2 to 3 ft seas north of 23N between
30W and the Bahamas. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of
6 to 9 ft are evident north of 13N between the Africa coast and
30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 23N between 30W and the
Leeward Islands, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas exist. Farther south from the Equator to 05N between 30W and
the Windward Islands, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are present. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal
and southerly winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft in large southerly 
swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and
related low along with the mid to upper-level trough, altogether 
will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the 
western Atlantic between the trough axis and 62W. The surface 
trough will drift southeastward and weaken during midweek. 
Afterward, another trough will develop just southeast of the old
trough and extend into the central Bahamas on Wed, then drift 
eastward through Thu night. Moderate winds and seas will prevail 
in the western Atlantic with the trough through midweek. Weak low 
pressure is expected to develop just north of Hispaniola Thu 
night and shift N-NE through Sat, accompanied by moderate to fresh
winds and active weather.