Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 052324

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia 
near 06N11W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 03N35W
to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ
from 01N-07N between 20W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is 
also noted south of the monsoon trough off the Liberian coast from
03S-05N and E of 20W.


A surface trough is analyzed in the western Gulf of Mexico from 
24N97W to 26N91W with showers seen within 90 nm of this feature. 
Otherwise, high pressure dominates the basin anchored by a 1021 
mb high near 31N86W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to 
moderate winds across the western Gulf with light winds in the 
eastern basin. 

High pressure over the northeast Gulf will shift east of the area
today in response to a cold front that will move off the Texas 
coast early Friday. Weak low pressure will form along the front 
over the northern Gulf Friday and shift northeast of the area 
into Sunday, allowing the front to stall and weaken over the 
western Gulf. A ridge of high pressure will build across the 
central Gulf Monday, before shifting east of the area late Monday 
ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the Texas 
coast early Tuesday and reach from the NE Gulf to the western 
Gulf by late Tuesday. This front will be followed by strong 
northerly winds, possibly reaching to gale force, over portions of
the far western and SW Gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night.


A shear line is stretched from the SW Caribbean to the Windward 
Passage, from 11N82W to 19N97W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen 
across the Windward Passage. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from 10N-13N between 79W-
84W. Showers and thunderstorms are also seen moving from the Mona 
Passage into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Upper level 
ridging covers the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep 
convection from firing off. Latest scatterometer data depicts 
strong northerly winds S of 16N and E of 79W. Fresh to strong 
trades are also north of Colombia, gentle to moderate trades in 
the eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds in the NW basin.

High pressure building north of the area will support moderate to
fresh trade winds across the region through early next week, with
fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Long- 
period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters Saturday night and into early next 


A cold front is draped across the central and western Atlantic, 
entering the waters near 31N56W and stretches southwestward to 
northern Haiti near 20N73W. A line of scattered moderate 
convection is along this front from 21N-31N between 54W-67W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen right along the 
cold front from 21N-24N between 65W-71W. 

Meanwhile, a cold front is dropping into the western Atlantic from
31N74W to 31N81W with light showers along the boundary. A trough
is noted from 24N74W to 30N63W. Farther east toward Africa, a 1008
mb low is off the Moroccan coast near 30N11W with a cold front
extending south and west from the low to 22N20W to 28N31W. Showers
with isolated thunderstorms are near the low, moving across the
Canary Islands and into Morocco and Western Sahara. 

The cold front will move eastward tonight, then become 
stationary by early Friday and gradually dissipate through
Saturday. A secondary cold front is moving across the far 
northwest waters. The front will quickly move across the northern
waters through Friday and to east of the area by late Friday 
night. Another cold front will move across the northwest waters 
Friday night and Saturday. This front will weaken to a stationary
front late on Saturday and to a trough on Sunday that will 
retrograde westward through Sunday night as strong high pressure 
builds southward across the waters northeast and east of the 
Bahamas. The associated tight gradient will bring increasing winds
along with building seas over these same waters beginning late on
Sunday. These conditions are expected to begin to diminish from 
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Dec-2019 23:25:08 UTC