188 
AXNT20 KNHC 201640
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1620 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 07N13W and
continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N120W to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 06N
between 18N and 22W. Additional scattered moderate convection is
from 02N to 055N between 34W and 47W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

1020 mb high pressure in the NE Gulf guides fair conditions across
the basin. 3-5 ft seas and gentle to moderate SE winds prevail
west of 90W, and 2-4 ft seas with light to gentle SE winds prevail
east of 90W. Some reduced visibilities due to smoke from 
agricultural fires in Mexico have been reported at coastal weather
stations along the southern Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through today, with 
gentle to moderate winds in the northeast half of the basin, and 
moderate to locally fresh in the SW half of the basin. Winds will
pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula
through at least this evening. A cold front is forecast to move 
into the NW Gulf late tonight into early Sun, stalling and 
dissipating near 23N early next week. Fresh to locally strong 
winds and building seas may follow the front through Sun night. 
High pressure will again dominate the basin by Tue and continue 
into Wed night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure dominates north of the basin. Fresh NE winds 
prevail in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic as captured by the latest satellite scatterometer data. 
Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the south-central 
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, trades are light 
to gentle. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. A weak surface trough
extends across the Leeward Islands, and may produce some brief 
showers today.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support 
pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, 
south of the Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern 
Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse 
near northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds will
pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the northwestern Caribbean 
through early Sun, then again by mid-week. Gentle to moderate 
trades will prevail elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three surface troughs provide for unsettled weather in parts of
the central Atlantic. The first trough extends from 18N57W
southwestward across the Leeward Islands, and may be producing
some showers. The next trough extends from 28N50W to 22N53W, and
the final trough extends from 31N42W to 28N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 23N to 28N between 42W and 50W, in the vicinity
of both of these troughs. The latest satellite scatterometer data
indicates locally fresh winds near these two troughs. 1021 mb high
pressure is centered near 27N71W and 1023 mb high pressure is
centered near 31N28W. Both areas of high pressure guide fair weather
conditions across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic basin.
Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. Between the Cabo
Verde Islands, NE winds may pulse to fresh speeds. An area of
Saharan Dust is evident on visible satellite imagery, and is
approaching the Lesser Antilles. Visibilities may be reduced to
3-6 nm in areas of heavy dust.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will remain 
through Sun night supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A 
cold front is forecast to move over the waters east of northeast 
Florida Sun night, then reach from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida
Mon evening, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue evening 
and from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas Wed evening. 
Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to 
accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise seas will
be mainly slight to moderate.

$$
Mahoney