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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 251718

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high 
pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to 
induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing
to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through 
Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning
in the vicinity of 12N76W. 

Atlantic large swell event: A storm force low over the N Atlantic
has generated a large long-period NW swell. The associated cold
front is expected to propagate into the waters E of 55W tonight. 
Seas of 12 to 14 ft will propagate into the northern waters in 
the wake of the front, N of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight. Seas
will peak near 16 ft over the waters N of 30N between 35W and 50W
Sun night. The swell will propagate southeastward, reaching as 
far south as 25N early Mon before subsiding. Seas over the 
discussion waters associated to this swell will subside below 12 
ft Tue. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at and Offshore Waters 
Forecast at for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 07N12W to 00N29W. The ITCZ continues from 00N29W to 
02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N 
and E of 28W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm N of the 
ITCZ mainly W of 35W.


Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf waters. A cold front has
entered the NW Gulf area, extending along the Texas coastline. A 
pre frontal trough is analyzed from 28N94W to 27N96W. Fresh to 
strong winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula as well as off 
Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, 4-6 ft W 
of 90W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending will slowly shift 
southward through late Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off 
the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period.
The cold front along the NW corner of the basin will move farther
southeastward before dissipating tonight. Another cold front will
enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. 
This front will reach from central Florida to NE Mexico by late 
Tue, and from the southeastern Gulf to the Bay of Campeche by late
Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind
the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf 
on Wed. 


Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near-gale NE winds are noted within 90 nm of the coast 
of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere over the 
central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except in the lee of
Cuba where seas are in the 3-4 ft range, and 6-7 ft over the Gulf
of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge 
and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night
near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Winds will pulse to
strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through 
the weekend. Strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Honduras into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail 
elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the 


Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event expected to begin tonight. 

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 30N62W. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh 
winds are found off the coast of northern Florida. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 8-10 ft range are 
noted N of 25N between 30W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft 
prevail, except 4-5 ft in the vicinity of the high center. 

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the 
area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week 
as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. 
Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front 
along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale- 
force on either side of the front north of 29N the middle of next 
week as the front reaches from near 31N60W across central Bahamas 
to east-central Cuba.