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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 241620

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 25N62W to
Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow across Hispaniola.
Coupled with a pronounced mid to upper-level trough in the vicinity,
strong thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and early 
evening hours over and near Hispaniola today and Thu. These 
thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing
the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and 
low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather service offices for
more details on this event.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W extending 
southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 
01S30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 0SN to 07N between 10W and 20W.


A surface ridge extends from E to W just N of the basin across 
the southeastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate E to SE
winds prevail across the basin, locally fresh W of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the northern half of the 
basin, and 2 to 4 ft across the southern half of the basin.

For the forecast, the broad ridge centered off NE Florida will 
support mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the 
Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf 
through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf 
starting Thu night, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong 
across the whole basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft
Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong W of the 
Yucatan each evening.


Please read the Special Features section about strong thunderstorms
and the potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

Gentle to moderate trades are over the basin, except fresh in 
the Windward Passage and in the Lee of Cuba, and fresh to 
locally strong near Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the 
basin, locally 6 ft in the S-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Greater 
Antilles will support fresh to locally strong winds just N of 
Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba 
today through Thu. Looking ahead, further building of the high on 
starting on Fri will also force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf
of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just S of 
Hispaniola through the weekend.


Please read the Special Features section about the strong 
thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N65W. A weakening cold 
front extends south from the front to the Turks and Caicos. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds exist behind this front and over the 
Bahamas, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Seas have diminished west of 
75W to 4 to 6 ft. A 1023 mb high pressure is centered west of 
the front near 31N75W supporting gentle to moderate winds. 

Farther east, a weakening low pressure system is near 25N36W. 
Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 25N between 30W and 45W 
around the NW quadrant of the low. Moderate winds or lighter are 
south and east of the low. Peak seas of 12 ft still exist near 
26N37W in the NE quadrant of the low. 8 to 11 ft combined seas 
are north of 22N between 35W and 45W. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft 
are north of 20N between 30W and 48W. Away from the low, 
moderate trades prevail over the basin, along with 4 to 7 ft 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to gradually 
weaken and dissipate to a remnant trough by tonight. Associated 
northerly swell of 8 ft or greater will subside by this evening. 
Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking
ahead, a new cold front will merge with the trough and progress 
eastward, reaching 31N57W to E Cuba on Sat morning, and then 
25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push S of 31N with
the front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening Bermuda 
High should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E winds W of the
front beginning Fri evening through Sun evening.