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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 211013

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the 
northwestern Caribbean dissipates today, the gradient between 
high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the 
southwestern Caribbean will tighten. This will cause strong winds
in the south-central Caribbean with winds pulsing to gale force
nightly off the coast of Colombia for the next several nights,
beginning tonight. Seas will reach 12 ft near the gale force 
winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
07N12W to 03N20W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to
01N34W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is observed from 03N to 06N, between 08W and 18W. 
Similar convection is observed from the equator to 05N, between 
24W and 41W.


High pressure ridging from the Ohio River Valley and Appalachians
extends southward into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. In
the western Gulf, the latest buoy data is reporting fresh to 
strong winds from the SE-SSE with 6-8 ft seas. Seas are 5-6 ft in 
the southern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Straits of 
Florida, on an abating trend. The remainder of the basin is 
dominated by moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United 
States through the work week, allowing for primarily moderate to 
fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western 
Gulf through tonight, and again Wed night through early Fri. Fresh
to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening
through the next several days. A weak cold front is forecast to 
enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing 


Please see the Special Features section for information about an 
ongoing Gale Warning.

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed across the NW 
Caribbean from central Cuba near 21N78W to the Bay Islands near
16.5N86W. NW of the front, fresh NE winds are occurring with 7-9 
ft seas, confirmed by a 21/0330 UTC altimeter pass. Within 150 nm
SE of the front, winds are moderate with slight seas. A building 
pressure gradient is supporting fresh trades in the eastern and
central Caribbean, strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are
5-7 ft, except 7-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, Fresh NNE winds will persist in the Yucatan 
Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Honduras through this morning. Marine conditions will improve 
later this morning as the stalled front dissipates. Strong trades 
will persist over the south-central Caribbean during the next 
several days, pulsing to gale force at night offshore Colombia 
through the forecast period. Fresh NE to E winds will prevail 
across the eastern and north-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse in the Mona and Windward Passages and
south of Hispaniola Wed through late week. Looking ahead, strong E
winds are likely to develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri night
and persist into the weekend.


A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to
26N72W to central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers are 
observed within 120 nm of the front, except within 150 nm ahead of
the front north of 27N. North of 29N and behind the front westward
to 79.5W, winds are strong from the NE with 8-12 ft seas. 
Otherwise winds are moderate to fresh with moderate seas in the 
western Atlantic. The central Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb 
high pressure centered near 32N43W. The high extends a surface
ridge WSW to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Winds are gentle near 
the high and moderate elsewhere near the ridge axis. Well to the
SE of the ridge axis, NE to E trade winds are fresh to locally 
strong over portions of the area from 12N to 25N between 26W and
56W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area. Similar conditions extend from
25N to 30N between 21W and 26W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and 
rough seas will continue behind the western Atlantic cold front 
north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front will
reach from near 31N63W to 23N75W this evening and from near 
29N55W to 23N73W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in 
Fri along 28N.