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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 111130

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC. 


...Atlantic Gale Warning... 

A cold front from 33N73W to 30N79W will sweep E across the
northern Atlantic waters Tue. Gale-force winds are expected with 
this front north of 29N between 63W-73W Tue evening into early Wed
morning, along with seas of 12-15 ft. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W 
to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N30W to 00N40W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 05N between 04W-20W. Scattered moderate/isolated
strong convection is seen south of 06N between 31W-49W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also just off the coast of French
Guiana from 04N-07N between 50W-55W.


A 1031 mb high pressure is centered over Louisiana and east Texas.
The high extends a surface ridge across the entire Gulf. An
upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. extends southward over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. Broken low-level stratocumulus cover
the eastern and southern Gulf. The northwestern Gulf has cleared 
out. The surface high pressure will continue to prevail over the 
basin through midweek. The next cold front will move into the NW 
Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, then 
pushing SE of the basin Fri night. Strong winds will follow the 
front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night into Fri over the NW


In the northwest Caribbean, a cold front extends from central 
Cuba near 22N78W to 20N82W to the N coast of Honduras near 16N87W.
A surface trough is located east of the front from eastern Cuba
near 21N77W to 15N81W. Broken clouds and isolated showers cover
the entire western Caribbean Sea west of a line from 21N78W to
18N81W to 12N82W. Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in
the eastern and central Caribbean, especially east of 76W and
south of 16N. Puerto Rico radar shows isolated trade wind showers
over and south of the island.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central 
Caribbean through Sat night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of
Colombia at night. The front from central Cuba to the N coast of
western Honduras will reach from near the Windward Passage to 
eastern Honduras by tonight, where it will stall and dissipate 
through Thu. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front 
this afternoon through early Wed. Another cold front will enter 
the NW Caribbean Fri afternoon, dissipating over the NW Caribbean 
through Sat night.


A cold front extends over the west Atlantic from 32N62W to 27N70W
to the central Bahamas near 24N75W to central Cuba near 22N78W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 24N-
28N between 68W-71W, and north of 30N between 57W-63W. These two 
clusters of showers are oriented parallel to the front about 30 to
90 nm east of the front. A second cold front extends from a 1004 
mb low near 33N73W to 30N79W. Broken clouds and isolated showers
cover much of the western Atlantic from the first front westward.
The weather is relatively quiet across the remainder of the 
basin, with a 1027 mb high analyzed near 27N44W. The surface ridge
extends from this high westward to N of Puerto Rico.

The cold front from 32N62W to central Cuba will shift E across the
basin through Wed. The second cold front will move across the 
northern waters Tue, with the two boundaries merging by Wed. Gale
force winds are expected Tue evening into early Wed with the
second front N of 29N between 63W-73W. Return flow will dominate 
the area for the end of the week, with another potentially strong 
cold front impacting the NW portion of the Atlantic forecast area
by late Fri.

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