AXNT20 KNHC 190518
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 04N18W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from that
point to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered showers are
noted within 75 nm on either side of the boundaries between 13W-
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge extends across the basin from the Atlantic with
fair weather. Light to gentle winds prevail across the eastern
half of the basin while gentle to moderate winds are noted west of
88W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in
the western Gulf.
The ridge will shift E through tonight ahead of a cold front
moving off the Texas coast Mon. The front will extend from the
Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz Mexico by early Tue, just as a
reinforcing push of cold air that will move off the Texas coast.
The reinforcing front will overtake the first front by late Tue,
accompanied by strong winds and building seas over the northern
Gulf. The merged front is expected to sweep the southeast Gulf by
early Wed. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf through late
Wed as high pressure builds in the wake of the front across the
The undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, located north of Grenada near
12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada
advises mariners to observe a 5 km/ 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please see http://nadma.gd for further information.
High pressure centered northeast of the region supports moderate
to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean, and gentle
to moderate E to SE winds over the northern Caribbean. These
conditions will continue over the next several days, except along
the northwest coast of Colombia where winds will increase to near-
gale force during the overnight hours. A weakening cold front is
expected to move through the Yucatan Channel by late Tue. The
pressure gradient will tighten ahead of the front, allowing fresh
to strong E to SE winds off the central coast of Honduras by Mon
A cold front is approaching from the north across the western
Atlantic. At this time, the front extends along 30N mainly west of
70W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas will move east
ahead of the front across the waters N of 28N and E of 70W
through early Mon. To the east, a surface trough extends from
29N50W to 24N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
north of the trough between 50W-60W. A surface ridge extends
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 30N28W.
Southerly flow will increase off NE Florida Mon night and Tue
ahead of a strong cold front moving into the region by late Tue.
Winds will reach gale-force north of 28N on Tue night through Wed
night as the front moves east. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu
as the front reaches from Bermuda to the Windward Passage, before
stalling and weakening through late week. A weaker front will
move eastward north of 28N Thu night into Fri.
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