000
AXNT20 KNHC 190556
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Gambia and Guinea Bissau, then runs westward to 12N18W. An ITCZ 
extends southwestward from 05N13W to 01S35W, then turns westward
to north of Belem, Brazil at 01S48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed near the ITCZ south of 03N
between 16W and 43W. No significant convection is found near the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1018 mb high at
the east-central Gulf to south of Tampico, Mexico. Thick cirrus
from the convection over eastern Mexico is streaming across the
northwestern and north-central Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE to E
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle 
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present at the northeastern and
east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf, including the
western Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through Sat, 
with gentle to moderate winds in the northeastern half of the 
Gulf, and moderate to fresh in the southwestern half. Winds will 
pulse to between fresh and strong in the evenings northwest of 
the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat evening. A cold front is 
forecast to move into the northwestern Gulf Sat night into Sun, 
stalling and then dissipating near 24N early next week. Fresh to 
locally strong winds and building seas may follow the front Sun 
into Sun evening. High pressure will return thereafter.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb sub-tropical high near 29N74W is promoting a trade-wind
flow across the entire basin. A surface trough is triggering
isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica. Fresh with locally strong NE
to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted northwest of
Colombia, near the Windward Passage and Cayman Islands, and just
south of Hispaniola. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the central basin, and Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the sub-tropical high will support fresh to 
locally strong trade winds near the Cayman Islands and Windward 
Passage at night during the next few days. These winds will 
gradually diminish this weekend into early next week as a cold 
front moves across the western Atlantic and the pressure gradient 
relaxes. High pressure that will build in behind the front is 
expected to support fresh to locally strong trade winds in the 
south-central basin starting Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs northeastward from northeast of the Leeward
Islands at 20N60W through a 1013 mb low near 25N54W to 29N51W.
Enhanced by strong divergent flow aloft, scattered moderate
convection is found east of the low and related surface trough
from 22N to 29N between 40W and 52W. Another surface trough is
triggering similar convection farther southwest from 17N to 20N
between 52W and 56W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exit just east
of the low from 25N to 28N between 47W and 51W. Moderate with
locally fresh NNE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from 20N
to 24N between the central Africa coast and 25W. Otherwise, light
to gentle with locally moderate northeasterly winds and 3 to 6 ft
seas are found north of 20N between the Africa coast and
Bahamas/Florida-Georgia coast, including the Canary Islands. For
the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 40W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 
5 to 7 ft are occurring. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate 
with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are noted
from 10N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Light 
to gentle monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed 
swells prevail for the remaining area of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the 1013 mb low and related surface 
trough will gradually track northeastward across the central 
Atlantic through the weekend. Periods of fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are expected to be near the low. Otherwise, two highs
and associated ridge dominate the Atlantic waters north of 20N 
with mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front may move into 
the waters off northeastern Florida early Mon, reaching from 
31N70W to the northwest Bahamas early Tue. Moderate to fresh 
winds may accompany the front. Winds may freshen with building
seas east of the Lesser Antilles to near 40W next week as the 
pressure gradient tightens. Mainly slight to moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere.

$$

Chan