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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 300906

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone 
near 07N12W, then extends southwestward to 04N30W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N30W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 04N between 18W and 20W.


Recent scatterometer data along with buoy and platform observations
indicate E to SE winds are starting to increase over the 
northwest Gulf of Mexico, between 1026 mb high pressure centered 
over southern Georgia and 1005 mb low pressure over north-central 
Mexico. This is indicative of a broader area of moderate to fresh 
E to SE winds over the waters west of 90W, with 5 to 7 ft combined
seas in NE to E swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7
ft seas are also noted over the southeast and south-central Gulf,
with gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft over the north-central and 
northeast Gulf. No convection is evident at this time. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE return flow is setting 
up across the western Gulf ahead of the next approaching front 
that will push off the Texas coast on Fri. Winds and seas diminish
as the front reaches from Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico 
by late Sat. The front will reach from Tampa Bay to Veracruz, 
Mexico by late Sun, then move southeast of the Gulf by late Mon.


A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to 
northern Belize. High pressure north of the front is supporting
fresh NE winds over the Yucatan Channel and to the south of
central Cuba. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Fresh trade 
winds are noted over the south-central and southwest Caribbean, 
with strong winds off Colombia. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft in
this area. Moderate trade winds with 3 to 5 ft area noted over the
eastern Caribbean. No significant convection is evident at this 

For the forecast, the stationary front extending from central 
Cuba to Belize will dissipate today. High pressure north of the 
area will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
through early next week. 


A cold front extends from 27N55W to 25N61W, then becomes stationary
to central Cuba. Another front extends from 31N57W to 27N68W then
is stationary to 27N74W. NW swell follows the fronts supporting 
wave heights of 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds follow 
the front as well, although these winds may be starting to 
increase as cooler, denser air and high pressure follows the front
as well. 1019 mb high pressure is evident east of the front, 
centered near 28N45W. Light breezes are noted in the area of the 
high pressure, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in mixed swell. The 
pattern also supports moderate trade winds farther south, with 5 
to 7 ft combined seas in a mix of local wind waves with longer 
period NW swell. East of 40W, strong to near-gale force winds and 
8 to 12 ft seas are evident north of 25N between 25W and 40W, 
associated with a gale center near the Azores. Gentle to moderate 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell are noted elsewhere east of 

For the forecast west to 55W, the fronts will by today, and the 
combined front will continue to move southeast, then stall along 
21W north of the northern Leeward Islands by Sat. Fresh to 
occasionally strong NE to E winds, rough seas and NE swell will 
follow the front into Sat. Looking ahead, another front will move 
off the NE coast of Florida Sun night, and reach from just west of
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Mon.