327 
AXNT20 KNHC 091739
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the Gulf of Mexico waters 
beginning on Tue night and move quickly across the basin on Wed. 
Gale force winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf 
waters mainly W of 92W behind the front during that time. Rough to
very rough seas are expected in the area of strongest winds.
Conditions will improve across the Gulf by Thu as the cold front
exits the basin and pushes farther east. Rough seas will subside
by the weekend. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at the website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...East Atlantic Gale Warning...

Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the area of Agadir,
with conditions ongoing through at least 10/1200 UTC. Gale force 
N to NE winds with gusts are expected in this area. 

Please refer to the Meteo-France website for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 09N and E of 5W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the western Gulf waters beginning on Tue night through
Wed.

Surface ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a
1025 mb high pressure well east of the Florida Atlantic coast.
Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the basin. Seas
range 3 to 6 ft, with buoys 6 ft seas off the southeast 
Texas/western Louisiana coast. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move offshore Texas 
Tue, then move quickly southeastward across the basin, exiting the
region Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Behind the front, strong 
to gale- force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected. 
These hazardous conditions will prevail through Thu, then high 
pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil 
weather for the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area with lower pressure over Colombia
is leading  to moderate to fresh winds across the basin. Locally
strong winds are noted north of Colombia. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in
the stronger winds with 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across the basin will 
prevail through tonight, then the high pressure will shift 
eastward into the central Caribbean, and winds will diminish to 
moderate to fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh 
to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead, a cold front will 
move through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into the NW Caribbean 
Wed night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning issued
by Meteo France for the area of Agadir. 

Across the western Atlantic, high pressure extends across the
area. Winds are light to gentle under the influence of the high,
mostly north of 26N. Seas are to 3 ft. To the east, a weakening
stationary front extends from 31N45W to 24N58W with a shearline
extending from that point to the Windward passage. North of the
front and shearline, moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas 6
to 8 ft. The 8 ft seas are to the northeast of the Turks and
Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of
the front N of 20N between 42W and 61W. 

In the central Atlantic, high pressure dominates the area with
light to gentle winds N of 23N and seas 5 to 7 ft seas. South of
23N, moderate to fresh winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail. In the
eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted with 4 to 6 ft
seas. Seas are 8 to 13 ft north of the Canary Islands and around
Mauritania. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front and shearline 
will weaken through Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will 
develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold 
front that will reach from near 31N79W to South Florida by Wed 
afternoon, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba
by Thu afternoon, then gradually weaken into Fri night as strong 
high pressure builds in behind it. A broad trough is expected to 
develop ahead of the front near 61W. A tight pressure gradient 
west of the front and trough will bring strong to near gale-force 
north to northeast winds and rough seas over the waters west of 
trough and front, and also north of 25N east of the trough.

$$
AReinhart