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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 061749

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Dec 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.


Central Atlantic Storm Warning: 

A large area of low pressure located over the central 
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern 
Leeward Islands, centered near 26N54W and with a minimum central 
pressure of 1001 mb, continues to produce a broad area of 
showers and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low. 
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for 
development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in 
the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low 
will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a 
mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical 
development of the system.

Regardless of subtropical or tropical development, gale force 
winds are already occurring with this feature. The area of 35 to 
40 kt winds exists mainly in the N semicircle of the low, N of 
28N between 45W and 55W. Strong to near gale force winds are 
within 240 nm of the center. Winds in the N semicircle will 
increase through tonight and reach storm force Wed. Winds will 
then diminish slightly with gales continuing Wed night through 
Thu night. Seas are already reaching 16 to 20 ft to the N and W 
of the center, with a broad area of 12 ft or higher seas N of 
22N between 45W and 63W. The radius of hazardous seas will 
continue to expand over the next few days, with waves reaching 
as high as 30 ft to the N and W of the center Wed and Wed night. 
More information about this system, including storm warnings, 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service at: 


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N30W 
to 05N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 
the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis from 02N to 06N between 10W and 
20W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 03N to 07N 
between 29W and 37W.  


A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered offshore the Florida 
Big Bend is dominating the Gulf of Mexico this morning, 
precluding any convection. Light to gentle mainly SE winds 
dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or less. 
Moderate S to SE return flow is over the Gulf west of 87W where 
seas are 3 to 5 ft. Buoy observations west of 94W are recording 
locally fresh winds, where seas are up to 5 ft. Fog within 30 nm 
of the northeastern Gulf coast is beginning to dissipate, but 
limited visibility may still exist in some areas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered across the NE Gulf will 
meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Fri night. 
Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through Wed 


The pressure gradient between high pressure over Florida and 
lower pressure in the southern and eastern Caribbean is allowing 
for fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, in the Windward 
Passage, south of Hispaniola and south of Cuba and the Cayman 
Islands, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A recent satellite 
scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh winds covering the 
remainder of the western, southwestern, and central Caribbean 
west of 70W, where seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly 
moderate and northerly in the eastern basin. Seas in the east 
are 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in and near Atlantic passages, 
due to long period northerly swell. No significant convection is 
occurring in the Caribbean this morning. 

For the forecast, low pressure across the central Atlantic will 
deepen during the next few days, inducing NE winds across much 
of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the 
Caribbean Passages, in the lee of Cuba, and offshore Colombia 
into Thu night. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will 
move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters 
through the weekend.


Please read the Special Features section above for details on a 
gale-producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential 
for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours. 
Storm force winds are expected with this low over portions of 
the waters starting Wed, regardless of tropical or subtropical 

The powerful and strengthening low pressure is dominating 
weather across much of the basin. The pressure gradient between 
this system and high pressure over the eastern U.S. is allowing 
for fresh to strong N winds north of 20N between 71W and 60W 
where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are 
between 71W and the Florida Peninsula where seas are 5 to 7 ft, 
except over the N Bahamas seas are below 6 ft. On the eastern 
side of the deepening low, a stationary front extends along 27N, 
supporting fresh to strong NE winds north of the boundary out to 

The far eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1018 mb high pressure 
center located just north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow surrounds the high, remaining south 
of 27N and extending out to near 44W. North of 24N and east of 
25W, winds increase to fresh from the SW due to an incoming cold 
front that extends from 31N23W to 26N29W.

For the forecast for areas W of 55W, much of the region will be 
dominated by the previously discussed low pressure NE of the 
Leeward Islands, that is described and forecast in more detail 
in the Special Features section above. Otherwise, large 
long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic 
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas 
and the E Caribbean with high seas throughout the week, with 
large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N 
early Fri through Sat.