000
AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Gambia,
then runs westward to near 13N20W. An ITCZ extends from 05N16W to
beyond 00N23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is observed near the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 13W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the Texas and Louisiana coast. A 
modest surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1021 mb high at 
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche. 
Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft are across 
western and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 
to 4 ft seas are present at the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the modest ridge will continue to dominate the 
basin. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan 
peninsula during the next several nights. Winds will become fresh 
to strong over the western Gulf from tonight into Tue. Otherwise,
moderate winds and seas will prevail through most of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches northeastward from south of Jamaica to
beyond the Dominican Republic. Scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms are occurring at the waters near Hispaniola.
Otherwise a surface ridge near 29N is sustaining a trade-wind
regime for the entire basin. Fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and
seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central basin. Mainly
fresh easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident at the
southeastern basin and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to 
moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge near 29N will result in fresh
to strong easterly trade winds pulsing nightly in the south-central
basin during the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong 
winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage, south of the 
Dominican Republic, and in the lee of Cuba for the next few days. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can 
be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the 
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N60W and southeast Bahamas to eastern Cuba.
Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 80 nm along
either side of this feature. A surface trough near 23N65W is
coupling with divergent southwesterly winds aloft to produce
scattered moderate convection from 19N to 23N between 59W and 70W.
Convergent trade winds are generating scattered moderate
convection from 02N to 04N between 36W and 50W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the
Atlantic Basin.

Fresh with locally E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident from
20N to 23N between 52W and 60W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NNE
to E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 20N between
the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast, including the Canary
Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen from 07N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate
to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present from 06N
to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually 
dissipate tonight. Large N-NE swell across the waters impacting 
Puerto Rico southward to the Leeward islands will linger through 
the middle of the week. High pressure will continue to build over 
waters north of 20N, bringing more tranquil marine conditions 
later this week. 

$$

Chan