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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



386 
AXNT20 KNHC 080400
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W, from 03N to
20N, moving W at 5 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 10N to 14N, between the coast of
Africa and 21W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for gradual development and a tropical depression may form around
the middle to latter part of the week as the wave moves into the 
central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook states that 
tropical development is not expected within the next 48 hours, but
there is a medium chance within 5 days.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W, from 04N
to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 09N to 12N, between 32W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46W, from 03N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 09N to 12N, between 39W and 47W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 72W, from 03N to
21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
behind the wave from 13N to 16N, between 66W and 72W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W, from 03N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
observed over Honduras and Costa Rica, with isolated moderate
convection in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
across the majority of the basin to 09N54W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N54W to 08N60W near the coastal border between Venezuela
and Guyana. All significant convection is related to the 3 
Atlantic tropical waves, described above. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low over the SW Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the central basin,
Bay of Campeche, and Yucatan Channel. A westward propagating line
of thunderstorms is also observed near the west coast of Florida.
The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged, dominated by
ridging from the Bermuda high. As a result, gentle to moderate 
E-SE winds prevail across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. Expect 
locally stronger winds and choppy seas in and around 
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, upper-level divergence east of an upper-level 
low that is over the SW Gulf will continue to support scattered 
showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin through Mon 
night. Due to local effects, fresh to strong NE to E winds will 
briefly pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight and Mon 
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
Bay of Campeche tonight enhancing winds and seas. An upper-level 
low is expected to shift from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf on Mon 
possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across this 
area. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
in the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
trade wind flow across the majority of the Caribbean. A recent
scatterometer pass confirmed that strong NE winds are funneling 
through the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-7 ft in the eastern and 
central basin and 3-5 ft in the NW basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue pulsing through the forecast 
period. A tropical wave currently along 72W will be accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas 
as it continues westward across the rest of the central Caribbean 
through early Mon and the remainder of the basin through early 
Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over 
the western Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the weather pattern in the
western Atlantic. Gentle winds increase to moderate easterlies
south of approximately 25-27N. Winds continue to increase 
southward, reaching a fresh breeze near the southern Bahamas, 
impacting the entrance to the Windward Passage and the Old Bahama 
Channel. Seas are generally 4-6 ft throughout the western 
Atlantic. Conditions are more favorable in the central Atlantic, 
where gentle winds increase to moderate south of 23N. Seas are 3-6
ft, gradually increasing as latitude decreases. Moderate NE winds
dominate the eastern Atlantic, with a fresh to strong breeze near
the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 
3-5 ft outside of the area of stronger winds, where they build to
6-8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the 
forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast 
period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and 
in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late 
afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A mid to upper-
level trough will track westward across the northern waters toward
NE Florida through early Mon enhancing scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over those waters. 

$$
Flynn