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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191015
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the W
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will support pulsing
winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean,
particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night.
Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. These marine conditions
are expected tonight and again Thu night. 

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late
tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville,
Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near
Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building
seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf.
Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including
the Tampico area Thu and Thu night. Gale force winds are also
expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region Thu night and
Fri. Building seas of 10-13 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website, 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on
both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 03N30W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 
02N to 04N between 22W and 30W, and from the equator to 06N between
40W and 51W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. Refer
to the Special Features section above for more information.

A surface ridge dominates the Gulf region and extends from a 1025
mb high pressure located over N Florida to the Bay of Campeche. 
Fresh southerly return flow is noted over the western Gulf with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas 
of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere, including the Yucatan Channel.
Cold air stratocumulus are still noted over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters today. Fresh southerly return flow across the western Gulf 
will persist today ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge
from the coast of Texas late tonight. The front will reach from 
SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the 
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong 
northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the 
front over the western Gulf. Gale conditions are forecast over the
west-central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. Then, the front is 
forecast to move slowly on Fri, and a low pressure may develop 
along the frontal boundary over the NE Gulf on Sat. The low is 
forecast to move NE into the W Atlantic dragging the cold front 
across the SE Gulf by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near
the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section 
above for more details. 

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, 
and fresh to strong winds across the Windward passage and in the 
Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trades prevail. 
Seas are 8-11 ft within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, and 
6-8 ft over the reminder of the south-central Caribbean, 
including the Caribbean waters of eastern Panama. Seas of 4-6 ft 
are noted elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, with 
mainly seas of 3-5 ft in the NW part of the basin.

A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms crosses the Windward
passage and extends across northern Jamaica in association with 
the remnants of a frontal boundary. NE winds between the Bahamas 
and Cuba are transporting some low level clouds with possible 
showers across eastern Cuba. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the basin
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
building across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will support 
pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central 
Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of 
Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. 
These marine conditions are expected tonight and Thu night. The 
aerial extent of the fresh to strong trades will increase today 
and persist through Fri, covering mainly the waters between 70W 
and 80W. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 20N70W. Some shower activity
is along the frontal boundary, with an area of showers and
thunderstorms just offshore the northern coast of Haiti. Winds 
continue to diminish on either side of the front. Currently, 
moderate to fresh winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 29N 
W of front to near 68W, and N of 20N E of front to about 52W. A
1021 mb high pressure is analyzed ahead of the front over the
central Atlantic near 25N50W. A surface trough extends from a 1005
mb low pressure located S of the Azores near 34N26W to 30N24W to
25N30W to 25N44W. Fresh to strong NW winds are N of 28N and W of 
the trough with seas of 10 to 13 ft. Fresh to locally strong S 
winds are affecting the Madeira and the Canary Islands.

Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical 
Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. An area 
of fresh to locally strong winds is noted from 06N-10N between 
40W-50W. Elsewhere S of 20N moderate to fresh trades prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, large seas in the wake of the above
mentioned cold front will continue to affect the NE waters today 
while subsiding. The front will begin to lift N today while 
dissipating. High pressure will be in control of the weather 
pattern across the area through Thu while moving northeastward. 
The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida 
on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. The front will 
likely reach from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida by Sat morning.

$$
GR