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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory


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000
WTPZ25 KNHC 190242
TCMEP5

HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LORENA.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  80SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.7W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG