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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory (Text)


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 200837
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  58.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N  58.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  58.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N  60.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N  63.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N  65.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N  67.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.1N  68.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.4N  66.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 34.6N  63.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N  58.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Sep-2019 08:37:19 UTC