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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory


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000
WTNT25 KNHC 222036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  66.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  30SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  66.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N  66.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.7N  67.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N  67.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N  68.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.8N  67.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 34.4N  63.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N  50.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH