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000
WTNT24 KNHC 252057
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE SOUTHWARD TO KEY
WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  80.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  80.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  80.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N  81.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N  82.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N  83.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N  84.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.8N  84.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N  84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.3N  84.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  80.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART