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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory


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000
WTNT21 KNHC 191450
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF INDIAN
PASS FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  86.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 160SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 120SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N  86.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  86.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.0N  83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N  79.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.0N  75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.6N  71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 36.4N  66.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N  86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART