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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060239
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve
hours.  Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry
mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system
during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep
convection will make a comeback.  Therefore, Xavier is now
considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last
advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well-
pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few
visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming
that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the
ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago.  Continued gradual weakening
is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by
Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around
5 kt.  The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest
during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the
influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier.

For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Nov-2018 02:39:40 UTC