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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190843
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large
portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high
terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level
eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not
changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65
kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and
these winds are limited to a very small area near the center.

Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is
anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center
reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is
indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable
and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water
or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One
complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is
the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of
Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest.
Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones
into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will
continue as a separate system through five days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being
steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the
easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more
west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge
significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula
and others to the east.  The NHC forecast follows the previous one,
and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the
peninsula.  This forecast is highly uncertain at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico today.  A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to
protect life in property should have been completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction
currently occuring.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane
plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila